By Aggrey Baba
Something unusual is happening in Uganda’s opposition camp following the formal declaration that Chief of Defense Forces (CDF) Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba will seek the presidency in 2031, with the men and women who would ordinarily be expected to attack such a development going unusually quiet.
For an opposition that has spent years questioning the political rise of Gen Muhoozi, his growing influence and the so-called MK project, the silence has left some opposition supporters (foot soldiers) wondering whether their leaders have already conceded the 2031 contest, or whether there is something else behind the silence to confront the first son politically.
The question became louder after Tuesday’s sudden mobilization event at the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU) Chairman’s Office in Nakasero, where former PLU Secretary General and Kasambya County MP Hon David Kabanda (Omutume, as he normally calls himself) formally announced that Gen Muhoozi, who is also PLU chairman, has decided to contest for President in the 2031. The event brought together PLU leaders, MPs, supporters, mobilizers and journalists, and effectively transformed what had for years been discussed as the MK project into an openly declared presidential bid.
Kabanda said he had been specifically sent by Gen Muhoozi to communicate the decision to the country.
“General Muhoozi Kainerugaba has told me to inform you that he will run for President 2031,” Kabanda announced.
But the bigger political story may not actually be what Kabanda said, but rather what the opposition has not said.
Gen Muhoozi himself had already announced on August 25 that he would seek the “highest office in the land” in 2031, even expressing confidence that he could win at 90% with the support of his father, President Yoweri Museveni.
Ordinarily, such a declaration by the serving army chief (and First Son) would have been expected to trigger an immediate political response from opposition leaders but instead, there has been striking restraint.
The silence has particularly surprised those familiar with the past conduct of opposition politicians whenever Gen Muhoozi enters the political arena or tweets anything concerning the politics of Uganda.
For years, Muhoozi has been one of the most frequently criticized figures by opposition politicians. His political pronouncements, social-media interventions and apparent interest in the presidency have repeatedly attracted pushback from opposition quarters.
Yet following Tuesday’s formal PLU declaration, there was no immediate coordinated opposition rejection of the bid.
Mulengera News on Wednesday attempted to reach several opposition figures who would ordinarily be expected to comment on such a development. Among those contacted was Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) president James Akena, but our calls to Akena went unanswered.
The Leader of Opposition in Parliament (LoP), who has previously been known for being outspoken and fearless in criticizing the crown prince, has also not publicly emerged with the kind of sharp political response that many expected. Ssenyonyi has also been too fearful to use the privileged platform available to him at Parliament to make uncomplimentary utterances against Gen MK. He is fearful and praying hard that the CDF somehow forgets abandons his move to dethrone him from the LoP position, through which NUP gets to control several billions of money.
Neither has there been a strong statement from the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF) leadership. And perhaps most strikingly, there has been no public intervention from National Unity Platform (NUP) president Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, who remains outside Uganda.
For opposition supporters, Kyagulanyi’s position is particularly interesting. While one could understand some opposition politicians inside Uganda choosing caution given the current political environment, some of the vocal opposition figures, including Kyagulanyi and PFF’s Ssemujju Nganda are outside the country and therefore, in the eyes of their supporters, have greater room to publicly challenge a development as politically consequential as the CDF announcing his intention to become President.
Yet, at least publicly, the NUP president and former Kira Municipality MP have not mounted an attack on the 2031 Muhoozi project, and their silence has now created its own political narrative.
The silence we’re talking about is not confined to NUP or PFF. Political parties such as the Democratic Party (DP), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Democratic Front (DF) and UPC have not, at least in the immediate aftermath of the Tuesday announcement, produced the kind of united political pushback that might have been expected.
This does not necessarily mean that these parties have endorsed Gen Muhoozi. But politically, silence can itself become a message, particularly when the issue is one that has historically generated heated debate.
For years, opposition figures have challenged the idea that power could move from President Museveni to his son, accusing the president of wanting to turn the country into a monarchy.
Some have accused president Museveni and the NRM of preparing a succession arrangement around Muhoozi, while others have questioned the appropriateness of a serving military commander simultaneously occupying such a prominent political space.
The Tuesday announcement therefore presented the opposition with an obvious opportunity to restate those arguments, yet the opportunity has so far produced little noise than expected.
The circumstances surrounding the announcement make the opposition silence even more intriguing, as Kabanda did not merely say that Muhoozi would like to become President but announced an organized political programme.
PLU unveiled the slogan “Muhoozi Gwe Akimala” and announced the commencement of a nationwide endorsement exercise.
Omutume Kabanda said the organization wants to collect millions of signatures from Ugandans endorsing Muhoozi’s candidature, with PLU targeting 19 million while Gen Muhoozi has subsequently referred to a target of 20 million endorsements.
In other words, this is no longer simply a General talking about a distant presidential ambition on X (formerly Twitter). There is now a political organization mobilizing around a specific candidate, a specific election year and a specific succession narrative, and that’s why some political observers find the opposition response (or lack of it) so curious.
Perhaps the most politically explosive part of Kabanda’s declaration was his claim that Museveni had sanctioned his son’s 2031 presidential ambitions.
Kabanda told the gathering that there was no contradiction between Museveni and Muhoozi and that the President would support the project.
Other reports have similarly carried Kabanda’s assertion that Museveni would endorse his son.
If true, that would make the development much bigger than an ordinary declaration by a presidential aspirant, amounting to a major signal about the succession question inside the ruling universe.
Interestingly, even within the NRM, the declaration has not produced the kind of open resistance that might have been expected from some of the old political actors who have previously been critical of Gen Muhoozi, becoming another striking feature of the moment.
For years, there have been political personalities in NRM who have questioned, criticized or expressed reservations about MK’s political ambitions.
But following the Tuesday declaration, the public response has largely been muted.
Kabanda announced the endorsement campaign, while Gen Muhoozi, through a post on his official X handle, where he normally angers his haters, thanked MPs who had attended the event and said “the journey has begun,” with the target of 20 million endorsements by September 2027. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
