By Ben Musanje
More than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa are at risk from the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño climate pattern, with drought, extreme heat and flooding threatening to worsen hunger, disease and disruptions to education and essential services, UNICEF has warned.
The UN children’s agency said the affected children represent more than two-thirds of all children in the region and urged governments, donors and humanitarian agencies to act before the impacts of the climate event intensify.
“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa. “Across the region, children are facing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and disrupted learning.”
UNICEF said forecasts provide a narrow window for governments and humanitarian agencies to take anticipatory action and reduce the severity of the crisis.
The agency has identified urgent and overlapping risks in 13 countries: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
In Somalia, severe flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people, according to UNICEF’s scenario mapping. Such flooding could displace families and disrupt children’s access to food, healthcare, safe water and education.
In Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children are expected to be affected, particularly in areas already experiencing severe food insecurity and vulnerability.
South Sudan faces a combination of drought, extreme heat and localized flooding that could deepen food insecurity and malnutrition, increase disease outbreaks and compound existing risks of famine and large-scale displacement.
The effects are expected to vary across the region. East Africa faces a heightened risk of flooding during the short-rains season, while poor rainfall and harvests could worsen food insecurity in Southern Africa. UNICEF said the consequences for children could continue well into 2027.
The agency is calling for urgent investment in nutrition, health, water and sanitation, education, child protection and social protection systems.
Among the measures UNICEF is urging governments and partners to take are pre-positioning lifesaving nutrition supplies, expanding early screening and treatment for malnutrition, strengthening disease surveillance and vaccination campaigns, and ensuring access to safe water and sanitation.
Schools should also be reinforced and alternative learning spaces prepared in advance of possible disruption, while child protection services should be expanded to provide psychosocial support, family tracing and reunification, and protection against gender-based violence and exploitation.
UNICEF is also calling for early-warning systems to be linked to anticipatory cash assistance and other shock-responsive social protection measures.
Despite the potential benefits of acting before disasters strike, less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, UNICEF said.
The agency is seeking US$173 million from its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children requirements to provide anticipatory and lifesaving assistance to children and families in the 13 priority countries.
UNICEF said early and flexible financing could help prevent humanitarian needs from escalating and protect development gains already made in vulnerable communities.
It cited estimates that every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs.
“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them,” Kadilli said. “The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price.”
El Niño is a natural climate pattern associated with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It can alter rainfall, temperatures and weather extremes across different parts of the world.
UNICEF said the region’s children are particularly vulnerable because climate shocks can compound existing food insecurity, displacement, poverty and pressure on health and other essential services. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
