By Joachim Mugyenzi
Since 1986, Uganda’s government has often celebrated the expansion of its road network as a sign of national progress. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) proudly points to 6,199 kilometers of paved roads compared to 1,900 kilometers in 1986, as evidence of breakaway from the past governments. On the surface, the numbers look impressive, but beneath the asphalt lies a deeper question: Are we measuring success the right way?
The government’s favorite statistic is how many kilometers of paved roads since 1986. This is an easy metric to promote, but it tells only part of the story. A more scientific measurement should take context into consideration: Uganda’s population in 1986, GDP, Period Effects, The 40-year period, Proportionality and Implicit factors. Without considering these factors, the road narrative becomes more about politics than about genuine development. Let us, break down the argument and evaluate it against available data and context.
- Economic Context
A right comparison includes Uganda’s GDP in 1986 to better contextualize the infrastructure growth. According to World Bank, Uganda’s GDP in 1986 was approximately $3.92 billion (in current US dollars). By 2023, this had grown to $56.31 billion and given the World Bank’s projection of 6.2% GDP growth for FY25, we can estimate Uganda’s GDP in 2025 to be around $63.3 billion (Roughly: $56.31 billion × 1.062 × 1.062 for two years). This represents a nominal increase of over 16 times in 39 years, though inflation and currency fluctuations must be considered for a real GDP comparison.
In real terms, Uganda’s GDP growth has been significant but less dramatic. The World Bank notes an average annual real GDP growth rate of about 5-6% over the past few decades. Using a conservative estimate, real GDP might have grown 5-6 times since 1986. This economic growth provided more resources for infrastructure investment, which should be factored into the analysis. For example, a government with $3.92 billion in 1986 would have far less fiscal capacity for road construction than one with $56-63 billion in the 2020s. The raw increase in tarmac roads (from 1,900 km to 6,199 km, a 226% increase) looks impressive, but when viewed against the backdrop of economic growth, it is less surprising and reflects expected development rather than exceptional performance.
The increase in tarmac roads aligns with Uganda’s economic growth, but without adjusting for this, the government’s claim lacks depth. A more meaningful metric might be tarmac road growth relative to GDP growth, which would show whether infrastructure development outpaced or lagged behind economic capacity.
- Period Effects and the 40-Year Timeline
Period effects in the 40-year timeline (1986–2025), should be considered to account for the economic growth. When Museveni’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) took power in 1986, Uganda was emerging from decades of conflict, including Idi Amin’s regime (1971–1979) and the subsequent Bush War (1981–1986). The economy and infrastructure were in disarray—roads had deteriorated and focus was on stabilization and rebuilding. Infrastructure.go.ug, notes that at independence in 1962, Uganda had 844 km of tarmac roads, which likely grew modestly until the 1970s but collapsed by 1986 due to neglect and conflict.
The NRM rule from (1986–1990s) was marked by slow progress due to limited resources and the need to restore ‘security and governance’. Significant infrastructure investment began in the 2000s, fueled by foreign aid, debt relief (HIPC initiative) and later, economic growth. Infrastructure.go.ug states that tarmac roads reached over 7,000 km by 2023, slightly higher than the 6,199 km as claimed in 2025, suggesting either a data discrepancy or a slowdown in road construction by 2025. Over 40 years, this averages to about 105 km of new tarmac roads per year, which is modest given the economic growth and population increase over the same period.
The 1980s and early 1990s were marked by recovery, while the 2000s saw global commodity booms and increased foreign investment in Africa, benefiting Uganda. The 2010s brought challenges like global financial crises but also opportunities like oil discoveries (expected to boost growth to 10.4% by FY27, per the World Bank). These external factors influenced the pace of development and should be considered to assess whether 6,199 km in 40 years is a remarkable achievement or a reflection of broader global trends.
Furthermore, the 40-year timeline includes periods of both constraint and opportunity and the government’s claim doesn’t account for these dynamics. A more detailed analysis would break down road construction by decade and correlate it with economic and political conditions, which might reveal whether the NRM’s policies were particularly effective or simply rode the wave of global trends.
- Proportionality: Population Growth and Road Density
There is need to adjust the road network growth for population increase and geographic needs. According to Worldometer, Uganda’s population in 2025 is estimated at 51.38 million. In 1986, UN estimates pegged the population at around 14.7 million (UN Data). This means the population grew by about 250% over the same period that tarmac roads grew by 226%.
Per Capita Tarmac Roads: In 1986, there were 1,900 km of tarmac roads for 14.7 million people, or roughly 0.13 km per 1,000 people. By 2025, with 6,199 km for 51.38 million people, this drops to 0.12 km per 1,000 people. On a per capita basis, access to tarmac roads has slightly decreased, suggesting that infrastructure growth hasn’t kept pace with population growth.
Road Density: Uganda’s land area is approximately 241,548 km². In 1986, tarmac road density was 1,900 km ÷ 241,548 km² = 0.0079 km/km² (or 7.9 km per 1,000 km²). By 2025, this rises to 6,199 km ÷ 241,548 km² = 0.0257 km/km² (or 25.7 km per 1,000 km²). This is a clear improvement, but it’s still far below the Uganda Vision 2040 target of 100 km per 1,000 km² (infrastructure.go.ug), indicating that the government is only about 26% of the way to its long-term goal with 15 years left.
While the absolute increase in tarmac roads is notable, it doesn’t fully address the needs of a rapidly growing population. The per capita metric highlights that individual access to paved roads hasn’t improved and the road density metric shows that Uganda still lags significantly behind its own infrastructure targets.
Conclusion
The government’s claim of expanding tarmac roads from 1,900 km to 6,199 km over 40 years is factually accurate but lacks depth without considering the GDP (from $3.92 billion in 1986 to an estimated $63.3 billion in 2025. The 40-year timeline spans vastly different political and economic conditions, from post-conflict recovery in the 1980s to oil-driven growth in the 2020s. The government’s claim doesn’t account for these dynamics. When adjusted for population growth, the per capita availability of tarmac roads has slightly decreased and road density remains far below Vision 2040 targets.
The author Joachim Mugyenzi can be reached via Joachimmugyenzi@gmail.com. He works with Great Lakes Centre for Strategic and Global Policy (GLCSGP). (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
