By Our Reporters
New information has emerged showing the extent to which President Museveni’s resolve to restore Uganda Airlines unsettled authorities in Kigali and combined with other factors leading to the currently diplomatic stalemate. Latest information shows that in September last year, Rwandan President wrote to Museveni raising 6 grievances he said he was fearful were going to complicate diplomatic relations between the two countries. One of the points he raised was that Rwanda was seeing economic sabotage in the actions of CAA (Uganda’s aviation regulator) refusing to grant Rwanda Air rights to pick from Entebbe passengers heading to multiple destinations including London. In his letter, Kagame referred to some bilateral agreements which he said obliged Uganda government to direct CAA to permit Rwanda Air’s requests. In his reply in October 2018, Museveni informed Kagame his hands were tied because of what CAA had told him. He disclosed to Kagame that the CAA management had told him that granting Rwanda Air request to pick London-bound passengers from Entebbe would disadvantage the soon to be revived Uganda Airlines by depriving it of the same business. In his October letter, to which Kagame isn’t known to have replied up to this day, Museveni said there was no reason for Uganda to be afraid of Rwanda’s economic development and use CAA to undermine the same. Museveni also advised Kagame to consider mobilizing for the creation of the East African Airways that would result from merging Rwanda Air, Uganda Airlines and national carriers of the other sister EAC member states. He said this would be more productive than having multiple national carriers fighting for business in the very small aviation market the region currently has.
The Kagame letter was preceded by a frank discussion the two Principals had on the sidelines of the AU Summit while in Addis Ababa and the Rwandan big man’s letter was merely a follow up to that discussion. Besides CAA-related grievances, Kagame also spoke about GoU’s failure or refusal to complete a power transmission line to Kigali. To him, this was further evidence of Uganda’s deliberate economic sabotage against Kigali. The power transmission line, which Rwanda expected to stretch up to its territory, didn’t go beyond Masaka and in his reply Museveni denies sabotage and explains that the huge compensation costs for the PAPs (Project Affected Persons) constrained the Uganda government prompting the project to stall before extending as far as Kigali desired. Museveni referred to many other GoU projects (totally unrelated to Rwanda) that had stalled because of similar PAPs-related claims. Kagame’s September letter also accused CMI (headed by Brig Abed Kandibo who Rwandans hate like plague) of orchestrating a campaign targeting Ugandans of Rwandan origin for marginalization. He says their passports are often confiscated by immigration authorities and they end up being accused of forgery and possessing Ugandan passports for which they don’t qualify yet to him these are genuine Ugandans though of Rwanda origin. In his response, Museveni (sounding smart and logical as ever) wonders why Kagame would bother himself being spokesman for Ugandans who he says are being mistreated by authorities in their own government. He lectures him that assuming those claims are true against Immigration and CMI, Uganda can internally resolve such issues concerning its own citizens. He refers to the need to respect other countries’ sovereignty and urges Kagame to leave matters of Ugandans (including those of Rwandan origin) to the Ugandan courts. Kagame also complained of Rwandan dissidents being allowed to conduct recruitment and training in preparation of an invasion on Kigali. He gave examples of hostile elements operating in Uganda including businessman Tribert Rujugiro whom he accused of being a sponsor of terrorism specifically by Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa’s RNC and FDLR. Kagame also accused CMI of being complicit in the group of hostile Rwandans the Uganda Police Force intercepted at the Tanzanian border. He expresses dismay that these were detained and later released by the Ugandan courts. On top of saying that’s how the Ugandan court system operates, Museveni replied that Rujugiro had been convinced to leave Uganda but was still failing to find someone rich enough to pay him a decent price for his businesses. He calls on Kagame to recommend rich Kigali tycoons with enough money to buy Rujugiro out. Museveni said he is a diehard Pan-Africanist who can’t tolerate mistreatment of Ugandans of Rwandan origin. He doesn’t seem to believe Kagame’s claims to be true. Like he repeated in his 10th March 2019 letter recently, Museveni also advised Kagame to consider using the Ugandan courts to gain access to those Rwandans living in Uganda and he considers them hostile. In the October 2018 letter, Museveni firmly protested attempts by Rwandan intelligence to gain unauthorized access to the Ugandan territory and carry out any security operations without formally involving their Ugandan counterparts. Museveni also stated it wasn’t good practice for Kagame to rely on political differences (in case he had any) as justification to target Rujugiro’s businesses. That Rujugiro had vehemently denied funding RNC or even FDLR but only accepted being good friends with Kagame ex-PPS turned foe Prof David Himbara. That in his interaction with Museveni, Rujugiro had vowed never to shun his friend Himbara simply because President Kagame considers him hostile. Museveni also referred to some Rwandans sneaking into Uganda on spying missions saying such was illegal and wouldn’t be accepted the very reason some were already facing trial in the Ugandan courts over espionage. The Independent Magazine of Andrew Mwenda, renowned for their insightfulness on Rwanda, says that unlike in the past, the current stalemate won’t be easy to resolve because Kagame has chosen to act “tough” and Museveni to act “indifferently.” That the fact that CMI’s Kandibo and ISO’s Frank Kaka, now at the apex of Ugandan security, are actors Kigali is extremely uncomfortable with is further reason for things to remain complicated for some time. It’s also true that being preoccupied with the 2021 elections, where he faces formidable challenger in new entrant Bobi Wine, Museveni is unlikely to be in a hurry to reach out to his Rwandan counterpart who must already be feeling very much deflated having been recently privately castigated for by two powerful neighbors (Magufuli and Uhuru Kenyata) for “unnecessarily” closing border with Uganda. The EAC Secretariat would ordinarily have to play a role in de-escalation but that is unlikely because Kagame, who is one of the protagonists in the latest tensions, is the EAC Summit Chair and the Secretary General Liberat Mfumukeko (a Tanzanian) is too cautious to take any steps fearing to be misunderstood and complicate strong trading relations his country enjoys with both Kampala and Kigali. In the past matters had escalated to the extent that Kampala perceived Kigali as working with Libyan strongman Gaddafy to plot regime change in Kampala but still in the end there was resolution after so many years of tensions. This was possible partly because the guys who were at the helm of the Ugandan security (IGP Kale Kayihura, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba leading SFC & ISO’s Ronnie Balya) were actors Kigali was comfortable doing business with more easily than the Kaka & Kandibo duo. Sources further say Burundi is in some way responsible for the latest fallout because Kigali complicated things by declining Kampala’s offer to mediate between Kagame and Nkrunziza the Burundi President. All this shows how much Kagame’s confidence in the Ugandan establishment has diminished including being his conviction that Kampala isn’t impartial enough to mediate between him and Bujumbura.
