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Bobi Wine’s Natete Rally Shock: Why M7 & NUP Critics Should Be Seriously Worried

by Mulengera
9 months ago
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Bobi Wine’s Natete Rally Shock: Why M7 & NUP Critics Should Be Seriously Worried
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By Aggrey Baba
Yesterday, as the Electoral Commission (EC) closed the two-day presidential nomination exercise, eight candidates were confirmed to appear on the ballot paper for the 2026 general elections.

Though not without tension, the process was markedly calmer than in 2021, when opposition figures faced widespread arrests and supporters were violently dispersed. In the build up to 2021 elections, NUP candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine) was brutally arrested by the police, assisted by the army (after nomination), and whisked to his home in Magere, canceling his earlier plan to launch his manifesto. FDC’s Amuriat Oboyi also faced off with security agencies, and was arrested before even reaching the nomination ground. In the process, Amuriat lost his shoes and by the time the FDC candidate reached the nomination ground, he was walking barefooted, and he actually accused the police officers of stealing his shoes.

Candidates confirmed to face off in the upcoming race are President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni of the NRM (incumbent), Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu of NUP, Nandala Mafabi of FDC, Mugisha Muntu ANT, Mubarak Munyagwa of the Common Man’s Party, Frank Bulira Kabinga of the Revolutionary People’s Party (RPP), Joseph Mabirizi of the Conservative Party, and Robert Kasibante of the National Peasants Party.

The heavy security presence was unmistakable, but the violent chaos that marred the 2021 process was largely absent this time. Still, there were scattered incidents, like MP Allan Ssewanyana and some NUP supporters’ arrests, while police fired tear gas and (allegedly) bullets in the air to control surging crowds around Kyagulanyi.

Yet, compared to the bruising scenes five years ago, the atmosphere remained relatively restrained, a shift observers say reflects government efforts to avoid international criticism again.

Museveni was nominated smoothly on Tuesday after fulfilling all EC requirements. Hours later, he addressed supporters at Kololo Ceremonial Grounds, striking a familiar tone of stability and continuity. He reminded the voters of the progress achieved under NRM rule, warning that any deviation could risk reversing the country’s gains. The Kololo event, structured and orderly, underscored Uganda’s longest serving leader’s incumbency and the machinery behind it.

The oppressed ugandans’ darling, Kyagulanyi’s nomination was less straightforward. Initially set for Tuesday, his bid was delayed when the EC found he had fallen short of the required number of signatures. By the time he secured the missing endorsements, the day had already been taken up by Museveni’s program, pushing his nomination to Wednesday.

That afternoon, Kyagulanyi addressed a rally in Nateete, where heavy rain failed to disperse crowds that stood steadfastly to listen to his message. He told them that the 2026 race is “not just an election but a protest against Museveni’s 40 years of injustice,” promising to lead a campaign rooted in peaceful defiance.

The Nateete turnout sent a message to both the NRM and skeptical opposition leaders that Kyagulanyi’s support base remains strong.

The NUP leaser’s nomination also triggered notable political shifts. Hon. Muhammad Nsereko of the Ecological Party, who had been one of his sharpest critics, announced he would back him. Nsereko had earlier pledged to support Kyagulanyi if his candidacy collapsed, and now, whether he will keep the promise, remains to be seen.

For years, Nsereko had directed sharp verbal attacks at Kyagulanyi, often without reply. His endorsement now signals a new twist in opposition politics and could strengthen Kyagulanyi’s coalition.

During a talk show on Kabaka’s CBS radio, DP’s Richard Ssebamala added his voice yesterday, calling on all opposition parties to unite around Kyagulanyi. The Bukoto Central lawmaker said “that now the nomination window has closed, it is clear the only candidate with real momentum is Kyagulanyi. If we are serious about change, this is the time to rally behind him.”

Several aspirants, including Nsereko, former presidential candidate John Katumba (Katumba oyee) and others, appealed for the EC to extend the deadline after failing to meet requirements. Their requests were denied, with EC boss Justice Simon Byabakama standing firm, saying, “The law is clear, and we must follow it. The eight (8) who fulfilled the requirements are the ones who will appear on the ballot.”

The scenes at Kololo and Nateete, unfolding barely a day apart, offered a preview of the 2021 race. Museveni stood on the ceremonial heights of state power, surrounded by a disciplined display of party support. Kyagulanyi, drenched but defiant in Nateete’s storm, embodied the street-level energy of protest politics, and the contrast highlighted the familiar contours of Uganda’s electoral contests, of continuity versus change, stability versus disruption, a veteran ruler against a ghetto, youthful challenger.

Campaigns will officially begin on September 29 and run until January 12, with voting scheduled between January 12 and February 9. Byabakama warned candidates against holding rallies in markets, near schools, or along busy roads, urging tolerance and compliance to the law.

While 8 names will appear on the deciding paper, the field is already being cast as a two-horse race, where Museveni leans on the weight of incumbency and nearly 40yrs in office, while Kyagulanyi, energized by his youthful base and fresh endorsements, positions himself as the alternative voice of change.

Uganda now braces for a contest that may have begun in calmer tones than 2021, but whose stakes, of stability or protest, continuity or change, remain as high as before.

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