By Aggrey Baba
The constituents of Jinja South constituency, in Busoga’s Jinja City are likely to witness yet another heated race for the MP seat, as longtime rivals Hon. Paul Mwiru and Hon. Nathan Igeme Nabeta prepares to face off for what will be their sixth contest in over a decade.
For more than 14 years, the two firebrand politicians have turned not only the constituency but the entire Jinja into one of Uganda’s most closely watched political battlegrounds, trading victories, court challenges, and by-elections, with each election testing their personal influence more than party loyalty.
Mwiru, now under Bobi Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP) flag, aims to reclaim the seat from Nabeta, who after losing the July 2025 NRM primaries to Richard Mbaziira, has already declared he will run as an independent. Their rivalry has consistently drawn attention, not just from Busoga, but across Uganda, where voters closely follow every maneuver and campaign strategy.
The duel began in 2011 when Mwiru, then representing the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), first challenged Nabeta. Nabeta won that election, but Mwiru successfully contested the results in court, citing irregular academic qualifications and voter bribery by Nabeta. The courts nullified Nabeta’s victory, leading to a by-election in 2012 that Mwiru won. In 2016, Nabeta narrowly defeated Mwiru, only for the courts to overturn the result and declare Mwiru the winner due to proven electoral malpractice.
In the 2021 elections, Nabeta again beat Mwiru hands down, this time by just 237 votes. Mwiru challenged the result in court, alleging manipulation by Justice Byabakama’s Electoral Commission (EC), but the appeal was dismissed on technical grounds after it was filed late.
Despite repeated setbacks, Mwiru has remained active and visible, shifting from FDC to Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu’s ANT and now to NUP, a move aimed at consolidating opposition support in the constituency, with NUP gaining more traction in Busoga.
Observers say Mwiru’s decision to cross to the red camp, despite choosing ANT over them towards the 2021 election, when he left the FDC, was a well calculated move, which now gives him a firmer ground to uproot Nabeta.
Nabeta, meanwhile, has leaned on his personal networks and past loyalty, running as an independent to maintain his influence outside the yellow structure. Observers say the 2026 race will test both of them and their political endurance once again.
Mwiru’s supporters point to his ability to mobilize voters across party lines and maintain a presence despite defeats, while Nabeta’s footsoldiers argue that his long-standing work and deep roots in the constituency give him an edge. The two candidates now embody contrasting approaches, with Mwiru, the adaptable opposition figure, and Nabeta, the seasoned NRM loyalist turned independent.
Many in Jinja say the contest is about more than party allegiance but personal influence, trust, and who can deliver tangible results. The repeated clashes between the two have created a sense of familiarity among voters, making each election feel like a continuation of a long-running saga rather than a fresh contest.
Both camps are already mobilizing supporters, consulting local leaders, and preparing campaign strategies. Mwiru’s move to NUP has energized urban and youth voters, while Nabeta appeals to older voters and long-term supporters who feel overlooked by the NRM. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
