Saddam Gayira, a leading luminary in Mzee Jaberi Bidandi Ssali’s PPP Party says there is no doubt the DP Bloc has many imperfections but still it would be risky for Bobi Wine to keep his distance away from them. In a phone interview, Gayira tells Mulengera news that Mr. Wine is politically too vulnerable to consider standing alone while preparing to face a strongman like YK Museveni who has been President for 34 years without break. “You see Dr. Besigye has contested four times but even for him it’s still work in progress. He still has so many gaps to the extent that he fails to have polling agents at over 70% of the polling stations. This is what we established in 2016,” says Gayira who was a key actor in Mbabazi’s 2016 campaign effort. He says that to understand his point, Bobi Wine might have to reflect on President Museveni’s experience as of 1986 when he captured power. Gayira says even after winning the war, Museveni rightly realized he remained vulnerable and had to look beyond his triumphant NRA cadreship to be able to get experienced people to comprise his government. “He had captured state power and could afford to ignore anyone and do his thing but still he had to woo people from DP and ex-Amin men to be able to form a strong government. He even accepted people from UPC which he had just toppled.” Gayira says whereas Mr. Wine (whose 2017 Kyaddondo East campaigns he participated in) might be having genuine support across the country, running an effective Presidential campaign takes much more. “He might budget to drive to Arua for his campaign rally but it’s more than just fuelling your car to Arua. You have to maintain political activities in every district before and after campaigning there and all that requires resources. He might have some money but you need guys who have been in this longer to help you even on fundraising because not everybody who likes your cause will have the guts to bring money to you directly,” says Gayira who was also thickly involved in Bidandi’s 2011 campaigns. He is a veteran politician who has opposed the NRM longer than many people who are today considered to be kingmakers in the opposition.
DOOM FOR DP BLOC
Gayira says there are indicators the DP Bloc may not succeed. He says whereas abusing Kizza Besigye on the launching day is real bad, the worst will come when it comes to agreeing on joint candidates. He says Presidency might be easier agreeing between Bobi Wine and Mao but the biggest challenge will be on lower levels. He says because the “One to One” approach will fail in 80% of the constituencies promoters are targeting for joint candidates, the DP Bloc will gradually cease to exist or to mean anything within the first two weeks after the EC nominations. He says by that time it will be clear how the One to One strategy has been defied and there will be war everywhere, a thing he says will leave Mr. Wine in an awkward situation as to who to embrace. He fears the resultant chaos could create apathy that could eventually even deflate the Bobi candidature. “I can tell you from experience nobody is going to step down for a stronger candidate simply because somebody publishes a list of the DP Bloc candidates. Parties like DP are financially very poor and they have no levers to force anyone out of the race. Someone has invested in his candidature for 4 years and has spent money and you say you get out for the good of the broader DP Bloc interests? That isn’t going to happen and I can guarantee you that is when failure of the DP Bloc will become so obvious for even the blind to see,” Gayira says. We asked him, how then does Bobi Wine ally with such a group without getting entangled into petty fights of people fighting for MP and councilor positions? “It won’t be easy but it’s possible. He can remain above board by avoiding going into local small fights and doesn’t have to declare any views regarding certain constituency-based conflicts. Yes it makes him seem opportunistic but that is politics. It’s the opportunists who thrive unfortunately. That is why Museveni will come to a rally and say the NRM flag bearer is X but even Y is my person. It’s that way because you don’t want to offend one group yet you need votes. That’s what Bobi will have to do even at the expense of being seen as a weak leader without principles.” Gayira says Besigye was lucky both in 2006 and 2016 that his key symbol became a big selling point for those officially running under his campaign platform and the resulting momentum. “Its unlikely Bobi can have such a uniting symbol because he has no party and his clock symbol won’t be available even for his own candidates because of the NRM might. Once they confirm that the clock is selling, the NRM will sponsor many independents and direct the EC to designate that symbol for them and that will only make things more complicated for Bobi Wine and his lower level candidates.” Gayira says because of such very complex challenges, Bobi needs to be associated with a well registered political formation or grouping which can be DP Bloc, imperfect as it is. He says problems of deciding joint candidates are part of what frustrated JPAM’s TDA project because campaigning with a unified message becomes complex once you can’t enforce the joint candidates approach. Gayira says unlike NRM that can use sweeteners to get some candidates out in favor of others, Bobi will face limitations as an individual gunning for the top seat. Gayira says the insistence by promoters of DP Bloc on people abandoning their parties and joining it instantly (or else unleash Bwanika on them) is already making the DP Bloc hard brand to sale. He insists the attack on KB during the DP Bloc unveiling event was totally uncalled for. He also says that some of the people involved in promoting the Bloc are so unsophisticated all they are after is media publicity if it means attacking would-be allies in the struggle. He says the preoccupation with media attention is going to remain a very big problem because actually some of the DP Bloc principals might even be wanting to compete with Bobi Wine for publicity. There are also protocol problems for the organizers because it has previously not been easy to determine between Bobi Wine and Mao who must speak last at public functions. In the end if not well managed, this could lead to a repeat of the Masaka fracas that prompted Mao and Mukasa Mbidde to suspend the reunion meetings.
POVERTY PROBLEMS
Gayira says the issue of poverty is another constraint he experienced during the TDA days. He says some people like holding high-sounding titles but when in actual sense they are as poor as a church mouse. “Mbabazi reached a point of telling off some people. You find a whole president of a party misses the presidential candidate’s rally and is at office the following day saying I was waiting for the candidate to send my bus fare. Mbabazi asked one of them but you people I thought I’m your candidate and it’s you as TDA to sponsor me and not the other way round,” Gayira says adding that Mr. Wine must be aware that many of the big men he sees in DP Bloc won’t do more than bashing KB on seeing media cameras. “Yet these things require using personal money from time to time in order to sacrifice for the struggle,” says Gayira who has worked with many opposition leaders in the last 30 years of Museveni’s rule. He says many of the guys in DP Bloc are camera politicians who won’t turn up on a day of hard reckoning unless they are assured there will be media cameras. Gayira’s final point (of camera politicians) is similar to what FDC lawyer Yusuf Nsibambi has been cautioning Bobi Wine about-actors of lukewarm commitment. For comments, call, text or whatsapp us on 0703164755.
