By Aggrey Baba
Erias Lukwago remains the most preferred Kampala city mayor according to a recent public opinion survey that placed him far ahead of his potential challengers, despite increasing political competition and a changing party landscape.
The survey, which sampled over 2,400 respondents from across Uganda, including both rural and urban areas, found that 62.9% of voters in Kampala would re-elect Lukwago if elections were held today.
This impressive figure confirms that, despite party changes and growing rivalry from different political forces, Lukwago’s personal connection with voters remains firm.
Having spent nearly a long time in opposition politics, Lukwago’s journey has seen him move from the Democratic Party (DP) to the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and now to the recently formed People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), where he currently serves as acting president.
His latest shift comes just less than four years after he left Norbert Mao to join forces with Dr. Kizza Besigye in what was then seen as a strategic alliance to deepen the opposition’s reach in urban centers.
Yet even with these transitions, Lukwago’s base of support has remained steady. The survey attributes this loyalty to his visible and consistent advocacy for ordinary city dwellers, especially vendors, taxi operators, and informal sector workers who often feel neglected by government and mainstream politicians.
Many respondents cited his unrelenting defense of people’s rights, his criticism of what he calls the ‘militarisation’ of city governance, and his legal activism as reasons why they continue to trust him with the stewardship of Kampala.
Despite his lead in the poll, Lukwago is not without serious competition in the upcoming 2026 elections. One of the names gaining momentum is Eng. Ronald Balimwezo, the current MP for Nakawa East and a prominent figure in Bobi Wine’s NUP.
Balimwezo, who has built a reputation as a results-oriented leader with a technocratic background, is expected to pose a strong challenge, especially given NUP’s popularity among urban youth and first-time voters.
However, the survey suggests that Lukwago’s advantage lies in more than just incumbency. His years of engagement with grassroots communities and his record of openly challenging unpopular decisions made by government have earned him credibility that many politicians struggle to attain.
His ability to maintain visibility during crises (such as COVID-19 restrictions, street vendor evictions, and public market reforms) has helped frame him as a dependable voice for the urban poor.
What also stands out is that Lukwago’s support appears to go beyond party lines. Although his move to PFF represents his third party shift in under a decade, voters surveyed in Kampala seemed to place more weight on his individual record than his political affiliations. This sentiment was especially notable among informal sector workers and older voters who view him as one of the few leaders consistently fighting for public interest.
The data comes at a time when Kampala is undergoing political realignment. The NUP wave that swept through the city in 2021 remains potent, and several NRM-aligned candidates have also been trying to position themselves for future city leadership.
But so far, no challenger has demonstrated the same mix of name recognition, populist appeal, and legal activism that Lukwago brings to the table.
Analysts suggest that while the race remains open, especially with rising youth involvement and growing social media influence, Lukwago’s grounded presence in Kampala’s political terrain gives him a head start.
His challenge will be to maintain that lead in the face of an energised NUP campaign and internal opposition criticism of his constant party-changing (political prostitution).
