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By Abbey Kibirige Semuwemba
One of the many perks of living in central Uganda is that elections are always close. This means that we get visited by every politician running for president.
Kyagulanyi, aka Bobi Wine, is clearly a political celebrity. People are excited to see him even though he rarely talks about substantive issues on his rallies or elsewhere.
I once engaged Bobi’s supporters in one of the WhatsApp groups – most of them were Ugandans based in South Africa. I asked them why they supported him, yet he’s clearly a novice in politics and less knowledgeable about a lot of issues compared to the opposition leaders we have had in the past.
Some people said they liked that Bobi was already rich and is not taking any money from other people. When I told them that he had received over shs.20 billions from IPOD, a lot of money from diasporans, etc, one person said it was not true. Many blamed the media for lying. It seems that his call of “fake News” is working.
My impression of his supporters is that they are committed to him and resist any information that contradicts their beliefs, even when his actions are contrary to their best interests.
A few people even admitted that some of the things Bobi says or does make them uncomfortable, but he is still their guy. This often pivoted back to “he is better than Museveni, Besigye or Westerners”.
Overall, I felt that many had legitimate concerns that the system is broken and is not responsive to the needs of regular people. On this, we agreed.
Bobi supporters, like many Ugandans, have correctly diagnosed the disease – the system is broken, but their prescription is not only incorrect but also harmful to our country. Uganda can not afford to replace Museveni with someone like Bobi, but I’m sure they will never agree with me on this.
DIVISIONS IN OPPOSITION
The opposition has never been divided like it is in this election. Bobi created this situation himself. When NUP surfaced in 2020 after the People Power movement, its main task was putting down Besigye and FDC. Besigye supporters are fighting back up to now.
When Kyagulanyi fell out with his then vice president, Mathias Mpuuga Nsamba, the former made it his [priority] mandate to criticize him every chance he got. Mpuuga supporters and Mpuuga himself are fighting back up to now.
When Bobi fell out with the Mengo administration over land in Busabala around 2018, his supporters started criticizing and insulting Mengo officials. The Buganda traditionalists are fighting back up to now.
When Kyagulanyi fell out with DP’s Norbert Mao, the enthusiastic DP followers are still attacking him and NUP up to now. Mao himself is also on record rightly calling NUP an NRM walking stick in opposition.
The bottom line is that it was a mistake for the opposition supporters to invest their hopes in a leader who is destroying and dividing them instead of uniting them.
Because of their hatred of the “cockroach” (Museveni), the mosquitoes voted for the insecticide. But when it came, it started killing some cockroaches and the mosquitoes, including the fly that never voted.
PREDICTING THE FUTURE
As for the 2026 elections results, my prediction is again that Museveni is undoubtedly going to win them, and a bit fair this time compared to the previous elections.
The Buganda vote is divided compared to the 2020-21 elections. So, it’s no guarantee that Bobi will take the majority in terms of both MPs and presidential votes. NUP divided itself after just three years, with Mpuuga eventually creating his own party, Democratic Front, in 2024. There are also people who stopped supporting Bobi due to his anti-Mengo moves and rhetoric against the kingdom. Some of the elders won’t vote for him over his visit of Obote’s grave. Bobi got 62% of the votes in Buganda in 2021, but that will definitely be less next year.
NUP is, however, expected to dominate in Kampala constituencies again. NUP won 56 out of its 58 parliamentary seats in the Buganda region in 2021.
NUP will also get some better presidential results (not parliamentary) outside Buganda and Busoga due to the domino effect of Bobi’s campaigns. His strategy is to move with large groups of people wherever he goes in the hope that this would persuade others to also support him.
The domino effect describes a chain reaction in which an initial event triggers a sequence of similar events, each caused by the one before it. The first example of a political domino theory I ever heard was that, if the Communists won the Vietnam War, all of Southeast Asia, Australia, Indonesia and the Pacific Islands would fall to them.
Nevertheless, Busoga is likely to go mainly with NRM this time due to again the divisions within the opposition. The secretary general of the Common Man’s party, Bigirwa Moses, was one of the founders of NUP in 2020. He fell out with Bobi, and he is now a parliamentary candidate in Busoga under his party. Museveni got 404,862 votes in Busoga, while Kyagulanyi got 437,059. The margin was only 32,197 votes.
FDC’s Nandala Mafabi seems to be pulling crowds, too, in Eastern Uganda. It won’t surprise anyone if he comes second after Museveni in that part of the country. The Itesos and Mbale people seem to genuinely like him.
NRM has invested a lot in Mbale in terms of factories; so, they are likely to dominate politics over there. NUP is likely not to do well due to a lack of human and physical structures on the ground.
Northern Uganda is still a bit mysterious, but I expect the results over there to remain the same as the 2020-21 elections. Museveni will win almost everywhere, including Arua. Besigye won in Arua in both 2001 and 2016, but that was Besigye – he’s a unique character compared to the current crop of leaders in the opposition. The West will definitely go with Museveni and NRM.
Overall, the elections have surprisingly been peaceful, except for a few minor incidents in Mbarara and Kawempe that resulted in a few people being arrested. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
