By Aggrey Baba
In the unpredictable political winds of Kampala, the Kawempe North by-election unfolded like a high-stakes drama, exposing deep political realities in Uganda.
On Thursday, opposition candidate Elias Nalukoola of the National Unity Platform (NUP) clinched victory, defeating nine contenders, including the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate Faridah Nambi. More than just a local contest, the election served as a mirror of the nation’s shifting political landscape.
For the NRM, the race was a crucial test of its strength in urban areas. The results, however, painted a grim picture for the ruling party, signaling that its grip on the capital is slipping. Despite heavy security deployment and allegations of election irregularities, Nambi’s loss underscored internal contradictions within the NRM and growing dissatisfaction among city dwellers.
Butambala County MP Muhammad Muwanga Kivumbi, who also serves as NUP’s deputy president for Buganda, attributed the opposition’s victory to its stronghold in the area and a protest vote against security brutality. The election, he argued, was not just about filling a vacant parliamentary seat but was a strategic battle ahead of the 2026 general elections.
Political dynamics within the opposition were also evident. Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago openly supported Nalukoola, abandoning his fellow People’s Front for Freedom (PFF) candidate, Muhamood Mutazindwa. Analysts viewed this as a possible signal of growing unity between the NUP and Dr. Kizza Besigye’s Katonga faction, a move that could reshape opposition alliances in the coming years.
From the beginning, Nambi’s campaign faced challenges from within the NRM itself. Political analyst Charles Rwomushana described her candidacy as a victim of internal party contradictions.
While she attempted a civil, door-to-door campaign, security forces reportedly intervened aggressively, including deploying the Joint Anti-Terrorism Task Force(JAT) to suppress her opponents. This move, ironically, played into the hands of NUP, strengthening Nalukoola’s support among voters who felt targeted by state violence.
The heavy presence of security forces in the electoral process raised eyebrows even within the NRM. The party’s electoral commission head, Dr. Tanga Odoi, openly questioned the role of security in what was supposed to be a civilian electoral process.
The chaos and allegations of voter suppression ultimately led to a lower voter turnout compared to previous elections, raising concerns about the fairness of the exercise.
Since 2021, the NRM has won seven out of twelve by-elections, but Kawempe North proved to be a tough battlefield. Veteran journalist John Kakande remarked that while the NRM may take comfort in not being entirely wiped out from urban politics, the reality is that its influence in Kampala is waning.
Despite this, NRM’s Buganda region vice-chairperson, Godfrey Kiwanda, insisted that the party still holds strong support in the capital and will reclaim its lost ground in 2026.
Within the NRM leadership, the loss sparked an intense debate. A stormy Central Executive Committee (CEC) meeting at State House, Entebbe, saw top officials reject the election results, directing party secretary-general Richard Todwong to gather evidence for a legal challenge.
Some members blamed security forces for mismanaging the election and accused NUP of electoral malpractice. President Museveni himself expressed dissatisfaction with the process, questioning why results from 15 polling stations were nullified.
Beyond party politics, the election also served as a warning of what lies ahead in 2026. Political historian Mwambutsya Ndebesa suggested that urban voters are becoming increasingly conscious of their rights, while the government’s response is likely to be more forceful. The result, he warned, could be a heated and contested election cycle with little clarity.
Security forces also came under scrutiny for their handling of journalists covering the election. Several reporters were assaulted, some left limping with their equipment confiscated. Incidents of brutality against journalists in previous elections resurfaced, raising concerns about press freedom and the role of security in Uganda’s democratic process.
The road to 2026 is shaping up to be turbulent, with Kawempe North serving as both a battleground and a warning sign.
For Museveni and the NRM, the loss is more than just a parliamentary setback, but a thorn in the heel, signaling deeper troubles within the ruling party. Meanwhile, for the opposition, it is a reminder that while victories are possible, strategic unity and resilience will be necessary to sustain the momentum. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
