By John V Sserwaniko
Kasanda is a new district whose pioneer woman MP election is threatening to cause new cracks between Bobi Wine and his partners in the DP Bloc. We have interacted with key stakeholders and its clear battle lines are increasingly getting drawn. And the impending chaos relates to two candidates namely Zaninka Babirye and Flavia Kalule Nabagabe. Zaninka is a DP veteran (notwithstanding her age) and has been part of the teams that delivered hard fought by-elections like Butambala (2012), Bukoto South in Lwengo (2012), Brenda Nabukenya’s in Luwero and even Betty Nambooze’s in Mukono. Because of that history, she is the one Mao and other DP Bloc Principals are backing. In fact at DP headquarters, she is always next to Mao as he addresses weekly press conferences. She also has deep history with Bobi having grown up together in the ghettoes of Kamwokya/Kifumbira. She is also married in Magere and lives in a house next to Bobi’s. And Bobi’s siblings Fred Nyanzi and Mickie Wine are closely connected to her as a childhood buddy. She has previously carried the DP flag in local council elections in Kampala Central and Kawempe Division where she in 2016 was floored by FDC’s Rashidah Naluwoza for the position of Female Lord Councilor. She is also a close ally of ex-Deputy Mayor Suleiman Kidandala. When Kasanda was created, off Mubende district, she rushed and began popularizing herself as the flag bearer for both DP and People Power, a movement she says was conceived by DP diehards who had just backed Bobi in Kyaddondo East by-elections. She initially picked and an impression was created nobody would defeat her in Kasanda. Her PP posters were visible everywhere in Kasanda and our finding is that if government hadn’t halted polling, she was going to sweep the vote. The momentum has since died down with other contenders intensifying campaigns while demonizing her as one with modest roots in Kasanda. Critics say she is an alien and her only connection to Kasanda is because one of her brothers-in-law recently bought huge chunks of land in Nalutuntu Sub County otherwise she has no known ancestry there. Zaninka ideally should have responded to all this but she told us (via phone) that she couldn’t discuss much because she was frail and in hospital.
IN COMES FLAVIA
Those competing with her are many including Nawira Kavuma (NRM), Jane Nantongo, teacher Zulufa Nampijja (FDC) and Flavia Kalule Nabagabe who ranks among top contenders. A former employee of FOWODE, where she spent 7 years training future female MPs and councilors, in 2016 Nabagabe stood with Kampala Minister Benny Mugwanya who polled 120,000 against her own 20,000 votes. That made her 2nd and voters see her as their daughter whose resilience must be rewarded. When you speak to her, Nabagabe sounds politically very sophisticated having been exposed to the very best training that naturally comes with working with NGOs. The postponement of polling caused Bobi, who is very careful not to plunge into an election from where he will return empty-handed, to listen to deepen consultations. Some of the people he heard from were Mubende MPs Gafa Mbwatekamwa (Kasambya) and Patrick Nsamba (Kasanda North). These are NRM renegades who have openly been embracing PP. They informed Bobi that lack of adequate political history in Kasanda would make Zaninka hard brand to sale and the best way to save name for his PP is to jump on Nabagabe who is more popular and acceptable to voters. Their argument was this being an NRM stronghold, opposition chances are minimal and its better backing a candidate that can finish in a close 2nd position than one who will trail badly. Being an independent, who has never fraternized with NRM, made Nabagabe more acceptable and easier for Bobi to associate with.
CLASHING WITH DP
This effort by the Nsambas angered DP diehards in PP who saw Kasanda as an opportunity to grow numbers for their party and reward long-serving cadre Zaninka. The silent war started at the Magere Palace and Zaninka says Nsamba and Gafa took advantage of Bobi’s openness and receptiveness to all manner of visitors at his residence, to sneak in Nabagabe and get photos which they used to dupe Kasanda voters that Mr. Wine had endorsed her. “Bobi’s home is now like a public place. Anyone goes there and take photos with him. I’m a field marshal and founder in PP and I’m ready to crush Nsamba with his intrigue in the fields of Kasanda. They just got photos and started saying Bobi has endorsed Nabagabe which can’t happen. He is my childhood friend and I was among the first people who embraced him in Kyaddondo. There is no way he can forget me in favor of that woman Nsamba of NRM is trying to impose on the people of Kasanda,” Zaninka furiously said. “If it’s about photos, we all have them with Bobi and there is nothing special. I was in that room of the 5 people who even conceived the name PP and I’m the PP myself. I’m the one being backed by all those key players of DP Bloc and PP. I’m a field marshal ready to crush that woman in the field and not on social media.” Her views were later corroborated by Dennis Tumuheire who for long served as Bobi’s PA until he gave way for a salaried person the day Mr. Wine took oath as MP. Tumuheire says since Zaninka’s DP was key in propping up Kyagulanyi, it’s only fair that he backs their candidate in Kasanda. “In fact there is nothing new. When they visited him with chicken, Matooke and goats after he had returned from abroad, I personally confronted Kyagulanyi asking him about this betrayal. He told me Dennis you know how I work. How can I stop taking photos with me?” Tumuheire says directing quoting Bobi. He says Zaninka is too important in PP for Bobi to turn his back on her. He says MP Nsamba, who he dismisses as a confusing agent, is propping up Nabagabe because he fears the Zaninka win will inspire many more DP candidates who might threaten his own grip on Kasanda North in 2021 (Nsamba declined to comment when we called him saying he was constrained).
NABAGABE SPEAKS
Nabagabe refutes all the Zaninka claims wondering how Nsamba can be afraid of DP that doesn’t exist anywhere in Kasanda. She says DP, that has already declared war on her over Bobi, had a very obscure candidate who badly trailed in 2016 elections in Mubende Municipality. “I have been approached by many DP heavyweights including Mao. I have clarified myself to them that this is an NRM stronghold and fronting parties will only alienate voters back to NRM that even the 20,000 votes I got last time won’t be there. NRM and FDC too lobbied me to be on their ticket but I refused even when they have more support in Kasanda than DP. I can win as independent because I’m very strong in Kasanda. In 2016 I got 20,000 against Bugembe’s over 120,000 votes because of the accident that confined me in a wheel chair for 9 months, otherwise I’m a people’s darling here and the only one Benny Bugembe fears,” Nabagabe says. “DP officials up to now say I have a standing invitation any day I make up my mind and accept their ticket. They are ready to discard Zaninka in my favor because their research is clear I’m the people’s favorite. I’m on the ground and I’m born in Kasanda unlike her [Zaninka] whose home isn’t even known.” She says readiness to give her the ticket whenever she allows is proof even DP bosses realize Zaninka is hard brand to sale in Kasanda. She says her efforts to persuade Zaninka off the vote in order not to split the PP vote failed after she shunned her. “She keeps saying I’m too busy and despised me by delegating her PA to come and meet me. I have now made up my mind to run and I’m not interested in talking with her anymore because I have my vote anyway. Zaninka can’t get even a quarter of what I got last time.” She says having confirmed her strength, Bobi assigned his PA called Alex Waiswa to work with Mityana MP Francis Zzake to ensure her campaign is well coordinated and nobody else claims to be on PP ticket when nominations are finally called. She says her Flavia Kalule Nabagabe Foundation is what has endeared her to many voters because of the charity activities she has undertaken targeting mostly the girl child. She says her profile is the type Kasanda needs because on joining Parliament, she will be fraternizing with people she knows pretty well having mentored many of them in the FOWODE women leaders’ mentorship program. There are also reports that Barbie Kyagulanyi too considers Nabagabe more acceptable than Zaninka. This is so because Barbie has deep connections in the NGO world where Nabagabe is deeply rooted. But unlike other Buganda district, Kasanda has a significant Rwandese population the very reason Zaninka (a Munyarwanda herself) perceives herself as standing high chances.
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