By Our Reporters
With proposals to adopt the West Minister (aka Parliamentary) Model gaining traction, Bobi Wine’s 2021 presidential elections might after all be dead on arrival. Omar Kalinge Nyago, a diehard Bobi supporter based in Diaspora, says this is one very painful reality People Power supporters must right now begin thinking about and preparing to resist its successful imposition by the NRM. Kalinge’s politically very knowledgeable wife Aisha Kabanda was President Museveni’s private secretary for many years but recently defected to People Power. Neighboring Kenya is actually organizing a referendum for the citizens to vote on the suitability of the same West Minister Model.
LARGER IMPLICATIONS
And all this is further manifestation that in his bid to politically overcome Mr. Wine in the ballot box, President Museveni will leave no stone unturned. Sources say the man from Rwakitura is considering implementing a multi-pronged strategy aimed at decisively neutralizing the Kyaddondo MP whose People Power craze has clearly swept through the whole country. Firstly is to frustrate him financially which is already ongoing as seen in the way police has viciously been breaking up his concerts. Concert organizers too have, as we all know, been engaged making it risky for any of them to permit Bobi to perform at their future musical concerts. This achieves many things for the regime including economically neutralizing Bobi and emotionally isolating him. In the Greater Masaka area where the People Power momentum has been rising, recreation facilities and bar owners already say they have been threatened to stop playing Kyagulanyi’s music especially Kyarenga and the deeply political Engule. All this is clearly aimed at shrinking the mobilization space and unconventional approaches through which Bobi Wine would continue mobilizing support in the run up to 2021. Next will be people considered very close to him in family and music industry being paid heavily to either pressurize him off politics or to publicly denounce him as unfit to politically challenge Museveni. This is something in which lots of clandestine efforts are being invested and some people won’t be surprised when it comes to pass because some of the people close to Mr. Wine are said to be broke and potentially vulnerable to Museveni groceries. The other is to isolate Bobi by portraying some of his supporters and message as sectarian so that it becomes hard to build the necessary political alliances beyond Buganda. The use of IPOD as a platform for political dialogue with opposition parties in Parliament has already given Museveni chance to be seen as reaching out to political adversaries while totally excluding Bobi Wine. This is aimed at gradually diminishing Mr. Wine’s political relevancy.
CAN’T STAND IN 2021
The biggest political blow being prepared to totally obliterate Bobi and his People Power movement relates to the planned introduction of the West Minister Model of electoral politics. This is similar to the UK system where one becomes head of government without directly being elected but basing on party numeric strength in legislature. Already there are proposals to change the Ugandan political electoral system from the hybrid we have been having to something similar to the UK model. Under this model, the country goes to elections without directly electing presidential candidates. This will be delivered through the Prof Kiddu Makubuya-chaired Constitutional Review Commission that will be receiving lots of memoranda from pro-Museveni Ugandans demanding for the West Minister Model. Within 6 months into the Makubuya public hearings, an impression will be created that Ugandans massively want this model of elections on grounds it’s cheaper because without organizing Presidential Elections, the EC will save lots of cash. This is the argument many delegations will make before Makubuya insisting on the suitability of scrapping direct Presidential elections in favor of the West Minister Model. The cabinet will then bring to Parliament their constitutional amendment proposals including that abolishing direct Presidential elections and the argument will be it’s a popular public demand as already seen at the Makubuya hearings. With the NRM numbers in Parliament, the thing will pass as fast as State House wants it and MPs will be congratulated for passing something that is cost effective and popular with the public. Without the Presidential vote, the EC could save more than a half of what would have been spent. For starters, it’s possible for cabinet amendment proposals to be debated and passed in Parliament as the Makubuya CRC carries on collecting views on many other things. Their final report can be tabled and a white paper subsequently produced for debate by the subsequent 11th Parliament. The CRC doesn’t have to finish before 2021. They can carry on beyond the election year and inside sources at the Justice Ministry say should Museveni fully throw his weight behind this West Minister Model proposal, Mr. Wine will politically be finished. He can’t easily reclaim Kyaddondo East MP Seat because his demonstrated interest in the presidency created a vacuum which his key protégés are already fighting to occupy. They include Kasangati/Nangabo Mayor Tony Sempebwa and a one Ssimbwa of TASO. Bouncing back to seek reelection could cause Mr. Wine to be misunderstood besides complicating his relationship with Sempebwa and Ssimbwa, his two allies who have strongly supported him from day one. The West Minister Model further complicates things for him because it’s more aligned and beneficial to politicians who fall under political parties, something Mr. Wine despises. That way he can only retain political relevancy by aligning himself more to any of the political parties in the country.
HOW IT WORKS
The way the model works is that a political formation or party that produces the highest number of MPs produces the head of government who can by title be called President or Prime Minister like in UK’s case. In fact that is how Milton Obote became President in 1980. It was by virtue of being leader of UPC which produced majority MPs. Without being able to directly compete for Presidency, it’s hard to see how Mr. Wine retains undiminished political relevancy through the year 2021. One option would be to join a political party and return as MP for that party and if it has majority MPs, he can become its leader and President of Uganda. The other alternative is to form his own political party and prepare to field candidates but the hard experience a less frightening Muntu has endured to get his signatures accepted by the EC clearly indicates that may not be an option for Mr. Wine whose popularity the Museveni state is clearly very frightened of. He can also become leader of opposition (LoP), a position which the West Minister Model provides for in case he belongs to a party that becomes 2nd largest in the 11th Parliament. As Omar Kalinge Nyago, a leading ideologue in People Power based in Diaspora, recently indicated this possibility that Museveni might use the West Minister Model to overcome Mr. Wine is one reason why the opposition must quickly regroup and unite in 2019 to be able to effectively fight off this and other machinations by the NRM. Nyago belongs to JEEMA and he is very thoughtful which is why his last week social media message is something all serious-minded People Power supporters must ponder. One thing can’t be denied: Museveni is shrewd and longevity in politics has enabled him make or observe others make mistakes and learn from them.
HOW DOES HE BENEFIT?
Quick introduction of the West Minister Model (aka the Parliamentary system) favors Museveni in many ways. One it enables him avoid the very exhaustive nation-wide campaign that can potentially take physical toll on him being an old man besides costing colossal sums of money. He will clearly require much more money to overcome the People Power momentum in 2021 than he has ever spent on any election since 1996. Yes he can get the money and spend it but the cost will be dire for the economy in the months and years after 2021. It’s possible that the already stressed economy (JPAM calls it a tired nation) can sink into a recession from which it may not easily recover. It therefore makes sense for Museveni to save so much by scrapping direct presidential elections. That saving leaves him with much more to spend on his NRM MP candidates across the country. He will even require less time and travel risk to campaign for the NRM MPs. As party chairman he can sit in Kampala and utilize technology to coordinate mobilization for their victory. He simply has to avail them the campaign logistics and rely on the police and army to ensure People Power supporters don’t intimidate them or cause mayhem during campaigns. Sources close to him say the Arua fracas made Museveni see how unsafe the campaign trail can sometimes be and better if such direct confrontation can be avoided for the remainder of his years in power. As party chairman he can sit in Rwakitura, Kisozi or Entebbe and daily meet party delegations from across Uganda to discuss how NRM candidates can win. He then can fly to limited places for major rallies-namely Hoima for Bunyoro sub region, Mbale for Bugisu, Arua for West Nile, Gulu for Acholi-land, Lira for Lango, Masaka for greater Masaka, Jinja for Busoga sub region, Tororo for Bukedi sub region, Moroto for Karamoja sub region, Mbarara for Ankole sub region, Fort Portal for Toro sub region, Kasese for Rwenzori sub region and Kabale for Kigezi sub region. Alternatively he could as party chairman address major rallies at district level without having to personally go up to constituency or Sub County. That will be cheaper costing less financial resources and time as he won’t have to visit/campaign in many places to remain President. It’s also an opportunity to get the EC shorten the campaign period so that the anxiety and uncertainty that comes with campaigns is short lived. Either way, Museveni still remains President while at the same time using very lawful means to politically overcome Bobi Wine who many in NRM wouldn’t want to see directly campaigning with veteran leader Museveni for the direct presidency. The West Minister Model kills many birds with one stone for Museveni including remaining President without directly going through elections and going to the people to defend himself about undelivered pledges which are common place. It also increases his grip on the NRM party as its leader whose endorsement will greatly have contributed to the MPs’ election. For comments, call, text or whatsapp us on 0703164755.
