By Mulengera Reporters
Former Kawempe North MP Latif Ssebaggala, who is seeking to become Kawempe Mayor, has predicted that Erias Lukwago will easily trounce Ronald Balimwezo who the NUP party has fronted.
He says that voters in Kampala genuinely love Erias Lukwago because he is incorruptible, not a deal maker and has always taken clear stand on social justice causes and, in the process, paid a high price in defense of Kampala’s ordinary poor.
Latif Ssebaggala, who has been an elected leader in Kampala politics since the year 1996, says that Kawempe South and North MP races are some of the other areas where NUP bosses at Kavule could end up in total shock. He says that in Kawempe North, Erias Nalukoola has to work real hard as an incumbent because, leveraging State House billions, NRM’s Faridah Nambi has profoundly penetrated the grass roots a lot.
He says that one of the advantages Nalukoola has, is being the only major opposition candidate in the race and having the umbrella too, though that can only be a necessary condition to win but not a sufficient one anymore. Latif Ssebaggala says a lot has changed and 2026 won’t be a replica of 2021 when voters were blinded to simply tick the umbrella symbol.
Latif Ssebaggala, who has lately been very outspoken against perceived obscurantism, mediocrity, dictatorship and corruption inside NUP, adds that Kawempe South is a sure loss for NUP. In his view, Fred Nyanzi, Kyagulanyi’s elder brother who Kavule fronted, is a hard brand to sell to voters in Kawempe South.
He says that voters have clearly rejected Nyanzi because he has no roots in their area and voters remain generally hostile to the fact that in 2021, it was the same NUP leadership which sold to them Kazibwe Bashir who turned out to be a fake legislator. Kavule has never owned up to this disappointed. Neither has the leadership ever apologized for misleading voters. This insensitivity of taking voters for granted is something over which Kawempe South residents could revolt inside the ballot box to the total detriment of NUP party whose new headquarters at Kavule is situated in the same constituency.
Ssebaggala says that Kawempe South voters are now tired of imposed leadership and want to elect someone who is authentic and is organically rooted in their community. He predicts that it will either be ex-Makerere guild President Roy Ssemboga or NRM’s Madina Nsereko taking the day but not Nyanzi who he claims will be lucky to finish in number three.
When it comes to Kampala Central Division, Ssebaggala rightly predicts that NUP Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya will need divine intervention to win and become the next MP. The ruling NRM has always been strong in Kampala Central much more than many people ever realize.
The large crowds of people flocking there during day time don’t vote there. They only come to the arcades and markets like Kisekka, Owino, Nakasero etc for work but reside in suburbs like Nansana, Matuga, Kireka, Bweyogerere, Makindye Ssabagabo, Kyengera, Kakiri etc where they opt to register and vote from.
On voting day, candidates have to count on residents who are mostly government-affiliated actors residing in neighborhoods like State House, Kololo, upper Nakasero, Civic Centre, Buganda Road flats etc and these always live in gated communities and can’t even give audience to the opposition candidates. You can’t even hold a rally in such places and it’s always even harder to know the actual number of voters from those parishes. You also have hard-to-access polling stations in places like State House and Summit view barracks on top of Kololo hill where NRM candidates are always sure of a block vote.
The lower Kampala parishes like Mengo, Kisenyi, Kamwokya and a few others are the only ones where the opposition candidates can hope for some decent slice of the vote. Rubongoya is currently the main opposition candidate and NUP fronted him after top leaders getting the impression that, in the current political circumstances, he is the only opposition candidate who Gen Museveni can be comfortable with so that, in case he wins, his victory will be spared criminal alteration leveraging the unknown register size for Summit View etc.
Latif Ssebaggala believes that even the lower Kampala votes are going to be shared to Rubongoya’s detriment because DF’s Aidah Nakuya and NRM’s Minsa Kabanda are ghetto-bred candidates too with significant support among the urban poor residing and voting from parishes like ghetto Kamwokya, Mengo and Kisenyi parishes.
Actually, both Minsa Kabanda and Nakuya have previously been elected leaders in Kampala Central, an attribute Rubongoya doesn’t possess. Back then on the NRM ticket, Nakuya (who used to pray at Sserwadda’s church in Ndeba) was the KCCA youth Lord Councillor (2011-2016) and Kabanda years earlier had been the Kampala Central Councilor representing one of the Kisenyi parishes where she used to trounce a DP lady called Florence Kiwanuka.
And then the elephant in the room, potentially crippling and diminishing Rubongoya’s suitability, is the ethnic factor which Aidah Nakuya will predictably be amplifying to increase DF’s chances.(For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
