By Mulengera Reporters
In the latest episode of the very popular Bad Natives Podcast, comprising of Andrew Mwenda, Robert Kabushenga and Onyango-Obbo, the Independent Magazine CEO asserted that it was too early for anyone to write off DP President Norbert Mao in the Speakership race.
He went as far as claiming that Norbert Mao had no plans to stand for Laroo-Pece MP Seat in Gulu City in 2026 and only went into it after receiving a phone call from Gen Museveni directing him to do so. The other two panelists registered their scepticism and dismissed Mwenda as not being truthful on this.
Mwenda spoke of ongoing internal discussions and made it clear that there are lots of Museveni influencers who would like to see Mao become the next Speaker of Parliament. He said Anita Among has become too powerful that a lot of decision makers in the Museveni universe are simply not prepared to have her continue leading the legislature.
On the contrary, he said, a political weakling like Mao, who is broke, is a one-man army and has no loyalists inside the ruling party structures across the country, would be the perfect Speaker to have at this moment in time when its advisable for Museveni to have someone incapable of threatening the ascendance of his preferred successor (who Mwenda says has to be a family member either Gen Saleh or Gen MK) to the political throne.
Mwenda said that a lot of people are going to be surprised when Norbert Mao, whose opponent Anita Among he depicted as wealthy and politically very powerful and threatening to the status quo, becomes head of the legislature come May. Robert Kabushenga corroborated this by assuring Onyango-Obbo that some powerful insiders are ready to shed blood over the Speakership race. He said that whoever wins and becomes Speaker for the 12th Parliament will be of great consequence on how the succession dynamics play out between now and 2031.
Mwenda explained that Anita Among, unlike any of her predecessors, is on her way to become Uganda’s most powerful Speaker of Parliament in history. He illustrated how she controls structures of the NRM party across the country, which is why she was able to very easily defeat Rebecca Kadaga for the CEC position. He added that she also controls majority MPs both from NRM and opposition, on top of having firm grip on the Judiciary “because she approves all Judicial appointments in Parliament.” He claimed that she craves and has both money and political power.
Mwenda claimed that the Bukedea Woman MP had become so powerful over the Judiciary to the extent that today no one can win a Court case against her in any Ugandan Court. He said this unprecedented. He added that the firm grip she has on the Parliamentary Commission gives her additional power. Mwenda said she has ensured that at Parliament, the lowest-earning employee of the Commission doesn’t earn less than Shs10m per month and that many powerful actors like Ministers, Judges, Bishops and Muftis have had their children and other dependants go through the head of institution to get lucrative job opportunities at Parliament.
To Mwenda (whose MK group is allegedly involved in crafting the list of those to get included in the post-May 2026 government), all these combine to make it desirable among people within the Museveni universe to tame Anita Among by taking the Speakership away from her. He says the way he knows Anita Among, she is so calculative she wouldn’t have any problem bowing out in case Museveni, having come under a lot of pressure, rings and orders her to abandon Speakership.
He says that Mao stands a big chance because he is alien to the NRM structures and he is generally not politically very strong to the point of threatening powerbrokers at the Museveni palace. He asserted that Mao would be much easier to manage and tame than Anita Among when the inevitable biological transition sets in and Museveni’s inability to carry on becomes immediate reality.
Mwenda added that the need to ‘balance the boat’ will make it prudent for Gen Museveni to diminish the presence and visibility of people from Teso sub region in top positions of government. This is why he says that the Vice President will have to come from Buganda and that will have to be a person of laid-back character so that he or she doesn’t stand in MK’s way when time comes for him become President after his father, especially in case some unexpected happening occurs preventing Gen Museveni from cruising the thing up to 2031.
Mwenda predicted that, with the NRM Presidential Candidate scoring 47.8% of the vote against Bobi Wine’s 49.5% in Kabaka’s region, Museveni will be prioritizing Buganda for his VP-and the candidate will have to be someone docile and politically disinterested. And someone not capable of complicating MK’s ascendance to the throne in anyway, in case something unexpected happens.
Onyango-Obbo chipped in and assured Mwenda and Kabushenga that the Museveni he knows “is a perpetuity guy” and has no plan about any political transition. Onyango-Obbo, whose exile to Nairobi the Ugandan government orchestrated in order to diminish his anti-regime influence in the Monitor newspaper content, stressed that “Museveni is only focussed on having his casket emerge from either Entebbe or Nakasero and not Rwakitura or Kisozi.” Mwenda said that, much as that is Mr. Yoweri Museveni’s wish, the inevitable biological transition is going to necessitate that he puts in place some contingent plans to ensure that his political power is inherited by someone from the Kaguta household and not outside of it. Mwenda agreed with Kabushenga that Museveni’s desire will be either Gen Saleh or Gen MK, the CDF who is also his son.
Mwenda predicted that the Itesots might end up staying with officials like the Governor Bank of Uganda as Museveni will, out of necessity, have to ‘balance the boat’ the way Mao has been explaining. Mwenda predicted that Gen Museveni is, out of necessity, going to have an effective Prime Minister to coordinate the conduct of government business; and not just a fisherman like Robinah Nabanja.
Mwenda predicted that a leader of Thomas Tayebwa’s pedigree could be tapped to become the new Prime Minister. He asserted that Gen Museveni might prefer to have totally new faces at Parliament, who won’t have time and adequate clout to build a power base, because its such a powerful place. He predicted that Norbert Mao, as Speaker, might find himself deputized by someone else and not Tayebwa.
The Bad Natives Panel predicted that the likes of Amelia Kyambadde, and old guards like Henry Tumukunde, Kahinda Otafiire, Jim Muhwezi, Kahinda Otafiire, Prof Ephraim Kamuntu, Elioda Tumwesigye (who Mwenda said now have the opportunity to regroup), are going to have a lot of say in how power gets dispensed in the next five years, including on who becomes Speaker, Vice President, Prime Minister etc.
Mwenda said these are powerful historicals whose role Gen Museveni will feel obliged to recognize by taking care of their interests while deploying cadres into the post-May government. Robert Kabushenga asserted that, in case she goes ahead to become Speaker for a second term, Anita Among could end up becoming President of Uganda. Leveraging his arsenal of words and oratory, Kabushenga demonstrated how the old guards in NRM are increasingly going to find it hard to stop that from happening.
Kabushenga also referred to Eng Moses Magogo, the long-serving FUFA President, as another source of power, clout and leverage for actors in the Anita Among universe. He said, just like NRM, FUFA has an elaborate countrywide structure which he claimed had over the years been deliberately bloated with Magogo loyalists. He said the Among-Magogo couple, between them, have an effective network of mobilization that is well represented across the country. He argued that all this makes the Anita Among project hard to circumvent.
Reflecting on the fact that none of the people being discussed regarding Speakership-Mao, Tayebwa and Anita Among- is ‘an original NRM person,’ Kabushenga sarcastically called on the so-called historicals, who fought and came with Gen YK Museveni, to begin coming together to ask themselves uncomfortable questions such as “what happened? How did we get here?” Onyango-Obbo said that is one of the questions historicals like Tumukunde, Muhwezi, Otafiire and others (who he said had effectively regrouped by winning their respective MP slots) have to immediately begin asking themselves.
Knowledgeable sources say that the Muganda whose profile Andrew Mwenda described as suitable for the next Vice President is none other than former ex-Buganda Katikkiro Eng JB Walusimbi who these days lives a quiet life at his Kitebi-Mutundwe home-but gratefully is an old Museveni ally.
Besides regional developments regarding the DRC and the Sudans, the panel also spoke about the economy, making it clear the Ugandan economy is going to endure unprecedented struggles, prompting Andrew Mwenda to predict total economic collapse and crisis.
Mwenda persuasively articulated his fears that the government debt was clearly becoming unsustainable because 46% of revenues URA is to collect (inclusive of the projected oil revenues) will be going towards debt repayment. He explained that this means that after payment of salaries, the Museveni government will be left with very little to sustain its patronage system and to also finance service delivery to the people.
While Kabushenga castigated the current political system for deliberately sidelining intellectually sophisticated Ugandans in favour of amateur loyalists and for refusing to prioritize productive sectors like tourism, agriculture, trade and industry, Mwenda blamed much of the country’s cash squeeze on ill-advised donation of big sums of money to the likes of Amina Hersi Moghe’s Atiak sugar project (over Shs560bn), Mathias Magoola’s DEI pharmaceuticals in Matuga (over Shs760bn), Pinetti’s Lubowa hospital project (over Shs1trn), Roko construction recapitalization (costing over Shs200bn) and the more than Shs300bn that was sunk into the Ntungamo-based Inspire Africa coffee project of Nelson Tugume. Mwenda criticised these for being imprudent decisions which deprived the public sector of the badly needed liquidity.
The panel also disputed the prudence of the PDM program, making it clear that the more than Shs3trn that has so far been poured in it wasn’t cash well spent notwithstanding the fact that the Shs1m doled out to peasant households delivered a significant fraction of the 2026 vote for Gen Museveni and other NRM candidates.
Mwenda predicted that the Ugandan economic situation is going to worsen first in the next two years before things get better. He engaged in a prayer of some sort towards the end of the program and called upon all Ugandans to deliberately pray because it’s only divine intervention that is going to avert the looming economic calamity for Uganda. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
