By Mulengera Reporters
It’s now official the relationship between Uganda and Rwanda isn’t ideal as it used to be and there are a number of reasons for this. The officially stated reasons include suspicion that Kampala is giving sanctuary to groups hostile to Rwanda including tycoon Rujugiro Ayabatwa whose Meridian Tobacco Company has invested over $20m (Shs70bn) resulting into close to 400 permanent jobs being created for Ugandans. Through foreign affairs Minister Richard Sezibera, who ironically partly grew up in Uganda, Rwanda is also claiming mistreatment of its nationals coming to Kampala. Ironically the same nationals wake up every day determined to beat the ongoing official blockage to find their way to Uganda whose food production they rely on for daily sustenance. Many willingly come to Uganda for education among other services. In a Tuesday media statement, Uganda’s foreign affairs minister Sam Kutesa referred to deep trade and historical relations to make his case that the two brotherly countries mutually need each other to consolidate the difficult gains made over the years. On matters trade, Uganda (whose official narrative has largely been one of restraint) has been gaining much more whereby last year alone, Kampala received $197m worth of forex from exporting to Kigali which only exported stuff worth less than just $25m. Not very officially, Kigali has also been accused of infiltration and investing in espionage activities which veteran journalist and leading Great Lakes analyst Charles Onyango Obbo says shouldn’t surprise anybody because countries are expected to keep doing that from time to time. In fact Obbo asserts it would be strange if countries (allies or foes) didn’t occasion espionage on each other. Kigali denies all this just like Kampala denies being sympathetic to the rebel groups mostly formed by deserters from the Rwandan army.
UNOFFICIAL VIEW
Unofficially there are things sources close to Presidents Yoweri Museveni and Paul Kagame say are possibly causing uneaseness between the two leaders who remain the region’s strongest and longest serving. It’s said, unofficially, that Kigali is uncomfortable with and suspicious of Kampala’s undeclared agenda when it comes to insisting on an expanded and broadened EAC. President Museveni has been very outspoken on the need for a broadened EAC bloc which he says is good for market, business and common prosperity of the region’s inhabitants. He sounds genuine and has been very supportive of the process leading to ascension of Southern Sudan onto the EAC membership. He has equally been very enthusiastic about the prospect of DR Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrean and other neighbors becoming part of the EAC. He has also been equally very decisive in his support to ensure Burundi remains an active member of the EAC notwithstanding belligerent exchanges with Rwanda. Kigali has always been very cautious about the rapid EAC expansion in whose favor Museveni remains very outspoken. The thinking in Kigali is that Kampala hasn’t only been supportive but has also been prepared to extend financial support to ensure Burundi and South Sudan continue to meet their membership obligations which is a prerequisite for their continued EAC membership. Quite often this is seen as an effort by Museveni to numerically boost his views during the EAC Summit meetings at the expense of the Rwanda strongman who is feared to be nursing ambitions to become the very powerful Vladimir Putin of this region. Rwanda perceives Salvar Kiir and Burundi as Museveni’s stooges in the EAC, something sources say remains unsaid but a leading cause of uneaseness and endless suspicion between the two leaders. The other issue relates to Tanzanian President Pombe Magufuli. Before his ascendance to Presidency, his predecessor Jakaya Kikwete didn’t relate well with President Kagame who didn’t like his suggestion to force dialogue between Rwanda and FDRL rebels operating in the DRC. This was abominable because officially Kigali FDRL is synonymous with Interahamwe who masterminded the 1994 genocide that preceded Kagame’s ascendance to power. Magufuli became President at a time of tense relations between Kigali and Dar which were deescalated and Rwanda has been friendlier during his time. The reforms and draconian policies he has ushered in have also sparked uneaseness towards Magufuli within the Tanzanian security and ruling establishment. This has made him to sometimes be nervous and fearful for his personal security. And there are reports that as plan B, Magufuli (having some maternal closeness to the Rwandans) has privately been considering relying on the Rwandan Presidential Guard elite forces for his alternative security since he can’t 100% count on Tanzanians. Kigali considers this close bonding to be something making Kampala uneasy and uncomfortable feeling less important. Kigali, which previously hosted major events relating to World Economic Forum and is scheming for the Chogm meeting, fallaciously thinks Uganda is envious of their modest accomplishments on the PR front. They also consider their leadership to be superior and standing on a higher integrity platform when it comes to decisively fighting corruption. In his recent interview with The East African, Kagame (clearly speaking with much restraint) implied the problem with Kampala was that the leadership indifferently keeps quiet and rarely opens up to comprehensively discuss matters that can potentially complicate diplomatic relations.
