By Joachim Twino
Its official Asuman Basalirwa (who has been trying since 2008) is finally the pioneer MP Bugiri Municipality having polled 3,928 votes against NRM Francis Oketcho’s 3,267 and FDC Eunice Namatende’s 928 votes. This must have been very humbling to both FDC and NRM but more so the ruling party this being the home of their Secretary General Justine Kasule Lumumba. Beyond the Kizza Besigye-Robert Kyagulanyi dynamics that many have been discussing, the FDC defeat also clearly demystifies ex-LoP Wafula Ogutu and Salaam Musumba who are understood to have misadvised and hardened Namatende to insist on being a candidate in a Parliamentary race she was better off not participating in. Being FDC founder member, elderly Wafula is the biggest FDC (if not opposition) figure in Bugiri and his failure to show leadership when it mattered most is the reason FDC is nursing political wounds inflicted not only in Bugiri but in the other areas where polling was held on the same day. Bugiri is where the opportunity to create momentum the FDC (and entire opposition) needed to decisively win in especially Nebbi and Sheema was lost. There is no way opposition forces were going to bitterly compete in Bugiri and work together marketing joint candidates in Nebbi and Sheema where FDC fielded fairly strong candidates as seen in the narrow margins with which they lost. Defending Pallisa, where the FDC candidate was disqualified under curious circumstances, would have been easier if all opposition groups were working together in denouncing the NRM and EC on this matter. You couldn’t marshal that unanimity of the opposition forces jointly scrutinizing the EC on that Pallisa matter because opposition actors were already attacking each other in Bugiri. At the prompting of Odonga Otto, Bobi Wine drove to Nebbi but this had to be on a day when Besigye & Co had left the town. It goes without saying the impact would have sunk deeper had the two giants (Besigye & Bobi) raided Nebbi on the same day. This joint appearance was simply unconceivable because of the animosity Bugiri fermented. Lessons ought to have been learnt in Apollo Kantinti’s Kyaddondo East but this never happened. Why? Problem is Besigye has for long been constrained by group politics and the restrictions it imposes on him as an individual. In Bugiri, just like in Kyaddondo East’s case, we are reliably informed the retired Colonel preferred the stronger candidate (namely Bobi Wine & Asuman Basalirwa) but couldn’t openly embrace them fearing to antagonize the Party that insisted on having its own candidates. He was restrained to be seen de-campaigning Basalirwa just like was the case in Bobi’s Kyaddondo East. In fact according to Daily Monitor, Namatende supporters quietly complained about the lukewarmness seen in KB’s infrequent visits to the Bugiri campaign trail. He clearly wanted to minimize confrontation with the Basalirwa camp whose JEEMA campaign managers initially believed he would either embrace their man or totally shun Bugiri through the campaign period. In fact before nominations, he indicated to some people including Namatende that taking on Basalirwa was bad strategy. “But at the end of the day he had to go with the party decision because he is no longer a party leader and hates being seen to be arm-twisting the party leadership and yet he is reluctant to publicly antagonize their positions,” said a source. In privately arguing against the Namatende candidature, KB made reference to Kalungu by-elections 2008 where FDC was demonized for fielding Kayemba Afaayo to take on Mukasa Mbidde who was generally considered a stronger candidate for the opposition (his personal shortcomings notwithstanding). He also made reference to Kantinti’s Kyaddondo East insisting lessons had to be learnt. “This was merely advisory and being KB, he didn’t push hard to impose his views on the leaders at Najjanankumbi because he is always careful not to be misunderstood,” says a source close to him.
NRM INTRIGUE;
The polarisis Bugiri created for the opposition naturally meant NRM was to win and indeed looking at the results, their man Oketcho lost narrowly. Some have argued without the disgruntled Siraje Lyavala stepping down to openly back Basalirwa, the end result would perhaps have been different. The Lyavala exit consolidated the Municipality Muslim vote behind Basalirwa. In this part of the story we reflect on the intrigue that prevented NRM from capitalizing on a divided opposition. Secretary General Kasule Lumumba is the biggest NRM figure hailing from Bugiri and her actions were always going to be the game changer. There is a history to why many insist her favorite was Lyavala and she never warmed up to Oketcho. Lyavala was mentored by ex-Minister Fred Mukisa and then Lyavala (ex-LC5 Chairman) in return mentored Lumumba who started out as Bugiri woman MP shortly after University. She has always been very grateful and prepared to pay back by being there for him whenever he needed her. When Lyavala faced Malijan Azalwa for the LC5 seat, Lumumba was always there to ensure her mentor prevailed and this partly affected Lyavala as all Lumumba-related grievances in the voters cost him too. When Azalwa was arrested and convicted for criminal acts, there was a by-election (2013/14) in which Lumumba-backed Lyavala faced an FDC candidate who lost to him narrowly. This was after Azalwa’s supporters within NRM ganged up and acted to revenge against the Lumumba/Lyavala alliance. So being SG, it was expected Lumumba was to ensure Lyavala carries the NRM flag. Unfortunately she was sickly and away in Thailand, a thing that deprived her of enough time to promote Lyavala for the NRM ticket. Her adversary Tanga Odoi took advantage of this to ensure his man Oketcho (a fellow Japadhola) defeated Lyavala. He tried to report to the President saying he was being a victim of the Tanga-Lumumba row but he was denied audience partly because PPS Molly Kamukama who has the last word on such meetings, is anti-Lumumba. So Lyavala remained frustrated and angry through the campaign period.
AGNES TAAKA’S ROLE;
The open hostility Bugiri woman MP Agnes Taaka (a Lumumba protégé) directed at Oketcho’s candidature left many convinced Lumumba hadn’t embraced the flag bearer. Oketcho faulted him for being an alien in Bugiri prompting Oketcho’s supporters to also dismiss as a Samia. Lyavala was being marketed by Lumumba’s people as the only son of the soil being a real Musoga just like Basalirwa. An impression was created by the utterances of Agnes Taaka that in the alternative, Basalirwa is the man Bugiri should elect in case voters found Lyavala not good enough. When Lyavala’s people were about to succeed in convincing Museveni that Oketcho stood no chance, the flag bearer linked up with Parcis Namuganza another Lumumba adversary. Namuganza used her direct access/hotline to Museveni to embolden Oketcho and this only fermented more intrigue in the campaign.
MORE NRM CHAOS;
Said to be in possession of a lot of money delivered directly from Museveni, Namuganza got into the campaign and initially took up Gilgal Hotel which became her operational base. Having concluded Lyavala stood no chance (being backed by Lumumba who isn’t very popular because local people say she hasn’t used the SG post to take them to Museveni), Namuganza concentrated on financially gratifying Asuman Basalirwa’s supporters and invested most of the cash given to her by Sevo into fermenting defections from Basalirwa’s camp. She believed this was the best way to counter the Bobi Wine effect and indeed Bugiri felt the impact of the money she carried. After a mammoth rally at which Namuganza paraded alleged defectors from both FDC and Basalirwa camp, Wafula Ogutu took to social media castigating Museveni for pouring money into Bugiri through Namuganza who some commended for at least delivering the money as opposed to diverting it like some NRM leaders do. Lumumba, who carried much less money than what Namuganza had, reached out to her (Parcis) and advised against the way she was dishing it out. Her advice was the way the lands minister was going about the campaign wasn’t proper. She worried about sustainability. “My sister its good you are here but the way you are dishing out money is going to cause us problems. It would be better you consult us who understand this town,” Lumumba reportedly pleaded to Namuganza. But of course she didn’t take that advice in good faith. Lumumba’s concern was that many fake defectors were going to take advantage of Namuganza’s generosity and eat all the money and don’t genuinely defect. Indeed this caused problems and this is how it proved counterproductive: the NRM youth leaders became very angry and turned against Lumumba. Why would they? She would facilitate them with Shs10,000 per day to go and mobilize votes for the NRM candidate. She facilitated only NRM youths and was very contemptuous of the so-called defectors. Yet in her case Namuganza facilitated the defectors from FDC and Basalirwa camp with Shs100,000 per day. The money became too much and too sweet that by Wednesday when Museveni visited, the entire FDC youth league defected to NRM. Lumumba didn’t warm up to them and remained seated in the tent as Museveni to the podium to receive them and take some photos. “It’s because I was too tired having spent the whole day dancing Kadodi,” Lumumba told this news website. Namuganza’s Shs100,000facilitating FDC defectors caused resentment towards Lumumba and disenchanted NRM boys. They started saying “we now see to eat in NRM you must oppose first and be paid to keep quiet.” They revenged by going to Basalirwa whose camp used them to portray the NRM camp as full of ungrateful leaders who don’t look after party supporters. They encouraged many other loyal NRM members to reject the party candidate insisting this was the only way to eat something. This increased Oketcho’s vulnerability as more and more NRM cadres shunned him for Basalirwa. Namuganza took Lumumba’s advice not to recklessly dish out money as an act of interference and her supporters among the youth dismissed Lumumba as one who is envious of Namuganza because of the way the President trusts her. When money demands became too much, the Namuganza team relocated to Executive Hotel to avoid easily being accessed by people asking to be bribed to defect from the Basalirwa camp. Her supporters repeatedly accused Lumumba and Taaka of being saboteurs working against NRM candidate Oketcho. Convinced that the flag bearer was being undermined, Museveni resorted to calling Oketcho regularly seeking updates. Oketcho repeatedly reported Taaka fighting her as a Lumumba proxy. Museveni at some point engaged Taaka who denied fighting Oketcho but maintained he was a weak candidate who stood no chance. In that same interaction, Taaka praised Lumumba while demonizing Namuganza as an intriguer. Museveni asked Namuganza about this and she plainly said “Papa [this is how she calls him] the problem is that Lumumba woman who doesn’t support the flag bearer.”
WORST DAY;
The worst for the NRM came on the Wednesday Museveni came to Bugiri for a public rally. He was able to clearly see how uncomfortable Lumumba was seeing Namuganza in her district. Lumumba protégé Taaka betrayed everything. She was the MC being the woman MP and she repeatedly attacked Namuganza on the microphone. She also accused Museveni for giving the OWC job to Hellen Namutamba (a Kadaga blue eyed girl) whom she said was using the position to undermine her as Bugiri woman MP. She also wondered why Museveni was assigning the Bugiri campaign to many different people including outsiders. This was in reference to Namuganza who uneasily turned in her seat as Taaka ranted. Taaka said this was improper because at the end of the day it would be hard to precisely know who to blame in case something wrong happened to the campaign. The pro-Lumumba youths at the rally cheered as Taaka made this point. She was to later speak to Museveni questioning Namuganza’s mobilization credentials since her own Nangonde Sub County had been won by FDC’s James Tibailira after defeating NRM’s William Basoga. She also questioned why Namuganza was defeated in NRM primaries in Bukono if indeed she was a super mobilizer Museveni had been made to believed she was. Within the VIP tent where all these ladies (Namuganza, Lumumba & Taaka) sat, Museveni clearly saw the hostility was too much. In fact Lumumba’s people complained about officials who don’t hail from Bugiri being assigned by Museveni to market the NRM candidate and Namuganza as well as Milly Babalanda were given as examples. As he left Museveni sought dialogue arguing that to neutralize the Bobi Wine effect, the NRM forces had to be united. Lumumba confirmed to this news website that she indeed showed displeasure to the President about leaders who don’t hail from Bugiri and insisted whereas they are welcome to help the campaign, they should accept to be coordinated by the NRM local leadership in the district. She told this news website that even when she is Secretary General with a country wide mandate, she always goes through party structures in the districts she visits. She demanded that Museveni helps her to ensure that Namuganza and others submit to the authority of the local party leadership in Bugiri on the voting day. Combative as usual, Namuganza couldn’t take this in. She protested as much in the presence of Museveni who got the two ladies by hand as he left the rally. He walked with them towards his waiting convoy insisting they must work together. Lumumba said it was okay but Namuganza must submit to her authority as SG and party leader in Bugiri. On failing to reconcile the two, Museveni angrily waved his hands in the air and jumped into his car and left. He is said to have looked angry throughout the journey back to Kampala and he left convinced NRM stood little chance preventing a Basalirwa win. He was later given intelligence information alleging that even Bukooli Central MP Solomon Silwany wasn’t adequately warming up to Oketcho’s candidature simply because he feared being overshadowed by another Mudama hailing from the same Bugiri district. It’s understandable why a politician like Silwany would be apprehensive about the Oketcho win because the defeated NRM flag bearer can be very flamboyant and over imposing. He could easily overshadow Silwany and assume more political relevance to Museveni in Kampala given his mobilization skills and outspoken personality. For comments, call/text or whatsapp us on 0703164755.
