By Ben Musanje
Ugandans should brace for higher fuel prices beginning May, even as government assures the country that there is no shortage of petroleum products and that supply remains stable under the management of the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC).
Speaking after the opening of the 11th Annual Oil and Gas Convention at Speke Resort Munyonyo, Energy and Mineral Development Minister Ruth Nankabirwa said the anticipated increase in pump prices is being driven by global market forces, not domestic supply constraints.
“Definitely, the global volatility will not leave us the same in terms of prices,” Nankabirwa told journalists, pointing to rising crude oil prices and increased refining costs on the international market. “Beginning May, when we go buy the new products, we have to adjust.”
Her remarks come amid growing public concern over fluctuating fuel prices and sporadic stock-outs reported in some parts of the country in recent weeks.
Global pressures push prices upward
According to the minister, international crude oil prices surged sharply earlier this year, rising from about $65 per barrel in February to nearly $120 in March, largely due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The situation has been exacerbated by disruptions in key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil supplies. The partial closure of the strait has forced countries to compete for alternative supply routes, driving up both crude prices and refining fees.
“These global dynamics have increased the cost of the raw material and the cost of refining. Naturally, this will reflect in pump prices,” Nankabirwa said.
She explained that Uganda has so far managed to cushion consumers from the full impact of these increases by relying on fuel stocks procured earlier in the year at lower prices. However, as new shipments bought at higher rates begin to enter the market in May, price adjustments will become unavoidable.
Adequate fuel stocks secured
Despite the expected price increases, the government insists that Uganda’s fuel supply remains secure, with sufficient stocks and incoming shipments to meet national demand.
Nankabirwa revealed that between May and mid-June, UNOC has planned imports of approximately 163 million litres of petrol, over 200 million litres of diesel, and about 22.4 million litres of jet fuel.
These volumes, combined with existing reserves, translate into national stock cover of up to 67 days for petrol, 84 days for diesel, and 89 days for jet fuel, based on Uganda’s daily consumption of about 8 million litres.
“Uganda currently holds adequate fuel stocks within operational thresholds, complemented by a strong forward import pipeline,” she said.
The minister credited recent policy reforms, particularly the amendment of the Petroleum Supply Act, which centralized fuel importation under UNOC, for strengthening the country’s supply resilience.
Under this arrangement, UNOC works with international partners to procure fuel through diversified sources, reducing reliance on any single region.
“This country has strengthened its supply resilience through diversified sourcing strategies, enabling procurement from alternative global refineries beyond the Middle East,” Nankabirwa noted.
Supply disruptions linked to logistics, not shortages
Addressing concerns about fuel shortages in some areas, the minister clarified that these were isolated incidents caused by logistical and operational challenges among individual oil marketing companies, rather than a national supply deficit.
She pointed to delays in lifting allocated fuel, internal administrative bottlenecks, and financial constraints among some companies as key factors affecting distribution.
“The problem is not UNOC. The supplier has supplied,” she said. “Some companies have internal challenges or are unable to lift the volumes allocated to them.”
Uganda’s landlocked position also complicates fuel logistics, as the country depends on regional infrastructure, including ports in Kenya and Tanzania, for imports. Government agencies are working with regional partners to ensure efficient transportation of fuel from coastal terminals to inland depots.
Border demand and illicit trade distort prices
Nankabirwa also highlighted increased demand in border districts such as Arua, Busia, and Kasese, where cross-border trade and transit traffic have pushed prices higher than in other parts of the country.
Authorities have reported cases of fuel being smuggled across borders in jerrycans, as traders seek to profit from price differences in neighboring countries.
Additionally, practices such as hoarding, speculative pricing, and panic buying have further strained distribution systems and contributed to localized shortages.
“You can imagine people storing petrol in their homes. This causes artificial stock-outs,” she said, urging the public to avoid panic buying.
The minister warned that government would take firm action against companies engaged in hoarding or price manipulation, including revoking licenses where necessary.
Government steps in to stabilize market
To address these challenges, government has deployed enforcement teams in border areas, strengthened monitoring of fuel movements and retail prices, and enhanced surveillance to curb illegal trade.
At the same time, authorities are engaging oil marketing companies to improve coordination and ensure timely distribution of fuel across the country.
Looking ahead, Nankabirwa said government is investing in long-term infrastructure to enhance energy security, including expanding storage capacity and advancing plans for a domestic oil refinery.
“These investments will ensure that Uganda is better prepared for future shocks in the global market,” she said.
Call for calm
Even as prices are expected to rise, the minister emphasized that there is no need for alarm, reiterating that the country has enough fuel to meet demand.
“We urge the public to remain calm and avoid panic buying, as such actions are unnecessary and may disrupt normal distribution patterns,” she said.
With global market pressures showing no immediate signs of easing, Ugandans now face the reality of higher fuel costs in the coming weeks—despite government assurances that supply remains firmly under control. (For comments on this story, get back to us on 0705579994 [WhatsApp line], 0779411734 & 041 4674611 or email us at mulengeranews@gmail.com).
