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By Mulengera Reporters

Sources close to him have revealed that immediately after casting his vote, NUP Presidential Candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu will sneak out of the country using land borders as opposed to using the Entebbe International Airport. That after casting the vote, the NUP Supremo won’t even return home; will just disappear in thin air. His ultimate destination initially will be Jamaica from where he will proceed to the United States of America where his children are already.

While there, the man from Magere (whose incognito travel could initially be attributed to a kidnap act by the state to incite more public resentment) will use his vastly-followed social media accounts to issue out regular messages calling upon millions of his supporters to act defiantly while standing up to security agencies, police and soldiers who naturally are going to be deployed everywhere to cow any potential rioters (will be backed by close to 30,000 Kanyamas being coordinated by Umar Bulega who chairs Uganda Bouncers Association).

After days, and possibly weeks, of issuing frequent defiant inflammatory messages, Kyagulanyi will announce his return date and it’s being anticipated that millions of defiant supporters will be braving army, police and military deployments on the streets to stage defiant “home-coming” processions in all major towns of Uganda on the day he returns home. Major focus or such “home-coming” processions will be on Buganda region whose Wakiso district hosts Entebbe International Airport through which Kyagulanyi will be making a triumphant entry back to Uganda; the land of his ancestors.

His eventual return is expected to be a highly negotiated affair whereby key western embassies and government will engage the Museveni government to secure certain guarantees including a demand for security forces not to unleash extreme brutality unto Ugandans who will assemble in Kampala and other major towns to mark his return. Kyagulanyi, whose 14th January escape is already being coordinated by a female influential Mozambique MP (closely working with a one Ivony Shoal), anticipates being accompanied by a large contingent of western media representatives who will be relaying the event (his triumphant return) live to global audiences.

That Entebbe-Kampala procession, it’s being anticipated, will degenerate into a Libya or even Tunisia-like uprising with protestors demanding an end to Musevenism in Uganda’s politics. Similar arrangements, it’s anticipated, will be replicated in other major towns of Uganda with the hope that such defiant protests will overstretch security and gradually cause some members of the security forces to become disgusted (reflecting on possible Kayihura-like indictment by US & EU), denounce Gen Museveni and begin defecting to join the protestors. But the longer term political metamorphosis for Kyagulanyi will largely depend on how his nascent NUP party performs at both Presidency and Parliamentary levels. Whereas a decision has been taken to challenge the results in Supreme Court, in case Gen Museveni bounces back, the subsequent reorganization in NUP will all depend on how well the party performs at Parliamentary level.

Getting the second largest number of MPs, which FDC has been doing since 2006, will imply controlling the official opposition in Parliament, a thing that gratefully comes with significant leverage and financial logistics including the IPOD billions and money that comes under the budget of the LoP office and the four very lucrative accountability committees. Yet that isn’t all. Being the largest opposition party at the parliament level also entitles NUP to representation in EALA, AU PAP Parliament and Commonwealth.

All these are lucrative allocations coming with plenty of groceries which the nascent party will badly require to prepare and keep doing flamboyant politics for the 5 years preceding 2026. Achieving the position of 2nd largest political grouping in Parliament will naturally be less ideal (as opposed to outright win against Gen Museveni and his NRM) but will give the NUP adherents something to keep consoling themselves about the same not being a very bad start or a new party. That will mean carrying on with serious politics as the Kamwokya-based struggle will be able to access the required financing to keep the political wheels running for the next five years.

Yet being number 3 at the level of Parliament (should FDC once again become 2nd largest political party in Parliament) will only shrink opportunities for NUP and make things more complicated. Firstly, it will demoralize and demystify the NUP/Kyagulanyi momentum while depriving the party of significant financial resources that come with being the leading opposition grouping inside Parliament. The same will embolden many naturally rebellious NUP members to begin taking on Kyagulanyi wholly openly contradicting him which currently many fear to do however much aggrieved they become. It’s currently risky but the debate following NUP finishing in number 3 at parliamentary level will prompt many to engage in a honest debate during which the candidates’ selection-related mistakes committed at Kamwokya will have to be discussed with many claiming such dissatisfaction resulted into many independents who split the vote paving way for the NRM wins or even FDC. At that point, many will be courageous enough to bell the cat while openly questioning Kyagulanyi’s credentials as a leader without anymore beating around the bush. Gratefully, NUP will be entitled to some financial allocation via the IPOD arrangement even if they don’t emerge the 2nd largest political force in Parliament. Truth is the party will produce some winning MP candidates on Thursday sure deals being the likes of Betty Nambooze, Medard Segona & Muwanga Kivumbi just to mention a few.

At the KCCA level, having realized their Nabillah Nagayi can simply not much the Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago clout, many strategists in NUP are hopeful that their party can produce the largest number of Lord Councilors enabling them to produce the next Speaker replacing Abubaker Kawalya. Having the next KCCA Speaker for the next 5 years will give NUP visibility, a formal voice and platform to influence policy and decision-making at City Hall (the position also comes with some relevant connections & financial resources). Such could force Lukwago into some concessions or a power-sharing deal of some sort with the NUP teams. Excellent electoral performance at all these levels (Parliament, Local Governments & KCCA) will make NUP attractive to many politicians including those who will have succeeded to get elected as independents and the same will ease the administration of discipline in the party as people will reflect on the future electoral risks associated with belling the cat, antagonizing or contradicting the Party President, Secretary General and others.

Like we have previously reported on, Kyagulanyi realizes the inadequacies in the NUP party constitution including provisions that mandate the party president to single handedly appoint majority of the national leaders. The same constitution too doesn’t provide for certain offices like national chairman yet such are important in getting as many comrades as possible to feel empowered and part of the decision-making machinery. Accordingly, a constitutional review process is underway to amend the same document making it more amenable to the dictates of Uganda’s contemporary politics. That constitutional review process will pave way for a delegate’s conference in the period immediately after this year’s election cycle. The party’s electoral performance at all levels will determine how competitive some of the NEC positions will be.

Mulengera News impeccably understands that there are two tendencies clearly emerging in NUP; one perceiving the party as a thing of the politically undefiled young people of the Kyagulanyi age and below. That tendency is increasingly patronized by the naturally very ambitious Secretary General David Lewis Rubongoya who will be looking forward to maintaining his position besides using the NUP numerical strength in Parliament to become a member of the EALA. He also has an offer to do his PhD at Oxford University. As these two tasks keep him away, Rubongoya will be keen to have a NEC comprising of a membership that is loyal to him and Kyagulanyi; the overall goal being the preservation of each other’s generational political interests into the future.

As he prepares to strengthen his grip on the NUP administrative processes, including controlling the billions coming from IPOD etc, Rubongoya is apprehensive of another strong tendency or group within NUP comprising of relatively older politicians including Mathias Mpuuga, Betty Nambooze, Muwanga Kivumbi, Medard Segona and others who he is careful to ensure don’t get to influence the Kyagulanyi decision-making more than him.

The very brilliant NUP SG is equally paranoid towards another group comprising of Fred Nyanzi, Roy Semboga and others. In fact, inside sources say that fear to have things explode inside Kamwokya is the reason Kyagulanyi acquiesced to proposals to have Mpuuga and other Ssubi adherents operate from another office in Kabusu which is designated as NUP Buganda.

Even during this campaigning period, the activities of the Kabusu office have continued to cause quiet discomfort among Rubongoya loyalists at Kamwokya who quietly accuse Mpuuga & Co of using the Kabusu office to fraternize with some NUP-leaning independents clearly antagonizing the nascent party’s official flag bearers. Suspicion is that all the resultant NUP bad electoral performance will be used to justifiably portray Rubongoya as an inept SG in the period leading to the party’s delegates conference that will have to be held to ratify constitutional changes and elect new national leaders for the party.

Voices on all the intrigue relating to things like these have been muted (peaking out has been considered to be politically risky) but the post-14th January period will be the time for the aggrieved to freely voice their grievances and insist on having frank and open discussion about many of these things. To continue steering NUP to remain a strong cohesive party through all this impending turbulence, the NUP Principal Robert Kyagulanyi Sentamu will require a lot of political maturity, restraint and emotional intelligence. (For comments on this story, call, text or whatsapp us on 0705579994, 0779411734, 0200900416 or email us at




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